It's the most wonderful time of year, as the song goes, but this year is quite different from most. And that unusualness extends to the fields and meeting rooms of college football. In a normal year, the regular season would be over and bowl season would be upon us. Instead, it's conference championship weekend.
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused dozens of postponements and schedule adjustments in college football, which in turn has led to some hot topic debates that wouldn't occur in a usual season. How many games is enough of a sample size? How do you compare teams from different conferences when there have been few non-conference games? Do mullets tangibly make a football team better?
I can't answer those questions, and I won't try to. What I will do is briefly lay out every conference championship game taking place this weekend and explain the playoff implications and possibilities.
Conference USA Championship
UAB (5-3, 3-1 Conference) @ Marshall (7-1, 4-1 Conference)
Friday, 7:00 PM, CBSSN
Spread: MARSH -4.5 Over/Under: 44
Both of these teams' most recent game came against Rice (the team, not the seed). Marshall had its immaculate season derailed by the Owls two weeks ago in a 20-0 clunker. UAB fended off Rice last week, winning 21-16. Despite their results versus the common opponent, I think Marshall is the better team here and its loss two weeks ago was an anomaly. As cool as Dragons are, I'm going to go with the Thundering Herd in this one.
Prediction: Marshall 28, UAB 17
MAC Championship
Ball State (5-1, 5-1) vs Buffalo (5-0, 5-0)
Friday, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Spread: BUFF -13 Over/Under: 69.5
We didn't get as much MACtion as usual this year, but some MACtion is better than no MACtion. The abbreviated season still gave us the same kind of ridiculousness we've come to love from the Mid-American Conference, including a game in which Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson tied the FBS record for rushing touchdowns in a game (eight). Ball State is a bad interception against Miami (OH) away from potentially being unbeaten, but Buffalo is clearly the class of the MAC.
Prediction: Buffalo 38, Ball State 24
Pac-12 Championship
Oregon (3-2, 3-2) vs #13 USC (5-0, 5-0)
Friday, 8:00 PM, FOX
Spread: USC -3 Over/Under: 64.5
The Pac-12 was the last FBS conference to get started this fall, severely limiting the playoff chances of a league that has gotten left out of three of the five College Football Playoffs. It appears that number will be four out of six after this season, but unbeaten USC does still have an outside shot. Oregon is always among the pacific elite, but the Ducks have struggled, losing their last two games. I think the Nike Ninjas will keep it close, but I expect sophomore QB Kedon Slovis to lead the Trojans to victory.
Prediction: USC 34, Oregon 32
Big Ten Championship
#14 Northwestern (6-1, 6-1) vs #4 Ohio State (5-0, 5-0)
Saturday, Noon, FOX
Spread: OSU -18.5 Over/Under: 55.5
The Big Ten, like the world in general, has been a bit of a mess this year. The conference started late, left itself little flexibility, created a rule mandating that teams must play at least six games to be eligible for the championship game, then scrapped that rule after its best team failed to reach the six-game plateau. I think the final decision was the correct one, as Ohio State is the league's only road to the Playoff. The Buckeyes should cruise against a Wildcat team that lost to Michigan State.
Prediction: Ohio State 42, Northwestern 21
Big 12 Championship
#10 Oklahoma (7-2, 6-2) vs #6 Iowa State (8-2, 8-1)
Saturday, Noon, ABC
Spread: OU -6 Over/Under: 58
The Big 12 has seemingly once again cannibalized itself out of a playoff spot, yet one of these two teams could somehow still sneak in if all hell breaks loose. If not for Florida, Iowa State would probably be the most overrated team in the country. Yes, the Cyclones squeaked by Oklahoma and Texas, but they also lost two games, including a 17-point defeat to the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. I think Oklahoma's the better team, and I think the Sooners will get their revenge.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Iowa State 27
Sun Belt Championship
#19 Louisiana (9-1, 7-1) @ #12 Coastal Carolina (11-0, 8-0)
The Sun Belt Championship was canceled due to a positive Covid test
ACC Championship
#3 Clemson (9-1, 8-1) vs #2 Notre Dame (10-0, 9-0)
Saturday, 4:00 PM, ABC
Spread: CLEM -10.5 Over/Under: 60
This championship will be another rematch of a regular season game, with one small difference between the first and second meeting. This time, potential first overall pick Trevor Lawrence will start at quarterback for Clemson. Lawrence was out for the last matchup due to Covid protocols, and Notre Dame took advantage, winning in overtime. The Irish are probably firmly in the Playoff, win or lose. The Tigers are definitely in with a win. With Lawrence, I think Clemson wins relatively easily here.
Prediction: Clemson 35, Notre Dame 24
Mountain West Championship
Boise State (5-1, 5-0) vs #24 San Jose State (6-0, 6-0)
Saturday, 4:15 PM, FOX
Spread: BSU -6.5 Over/Under: 55.5
These mountainous western teams come in to Saturday's MWC championship with a combined one loss, and that loss was a Boise State beating at the hands of BYU in which the Broncos were playing their third-string quarterback. BSU will have starter Hank Bachmeier for this one, and I think he and the Blue Field Broncos will prove too talented for the Spartans of San Jose State.
Prediction: Boise State 38, San Jose State 20
SEC Championship
#1 Alabama (10-0, 10-0) vs #7 Florida (8-2, 8-2)
Saturday, 8:00 PM, CBS
Spread: ALA -17 Over/Under: 74
As usual, Alabama finds itself at the top. Even if the Crimson Tide lose by 50 points, they will likely still be put in the Playoff (now, if they lose by 51 points, that's a different story). Bama should have little trouble with a Florida team that somehow only dropped one spot in the rankings following a loss to 5-loss LSU last week.
Prediction: Alabama 48, Florida 27
American Championship
#23 Tulsa (6-1, 6-0) @ #9 Cincinnati (8-0, 6-0)
Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC
Spread: UC -14.5 Over/Under: 45
Conference championship weekend wraps up with the SEC and AAC Saturday night. This one pits the Green Wave (which I've always assumed is just a big wave with a lot of algae in it) against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats, who were at one point ranked seventh, dropped another spot in the rankings after having another game canceled due to Covid. UC probably won't crash the Playoff party, but the team will likely be the one to represent the non-Power 5 conferences in a New Year's 6 bowl.
Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Tulsa 21
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Friday Afternoon
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