Backdoor American Promotion Relegation: How It Could Happen

Photo from Psychology Today

Backdoor Pro Rel isn't just the name of my debut hip hop track but also what may be happening right here in America. Okay, maybe not, but I think it should.

Major League Soccer has come a long way since losing two teams in 2001. In the past 18 years, MLS has grown and grown even with hiccups such as Chivas USA. They've grown so fast, in fact, that they've tried to put caps on that growth. First, it was 20, then 24, then 28, and now infinity? At least according to commissioner Don Garber, that 28 team limit is no longer being talked about in the league. With Cincinnati, Nashville, Miami, and Austin all set to join before 2021, that 28 team cap would only leave one spot to be occupied with a dozen plus cities trying to take claim.

Garber recently signed an extension through 2023

Photo from Sports Illustrated

The problem with that 28 team cap wasn't small thinking but rather an underestimation. While Major League Soccer has grown and grown, so has both general interest in the game and the business around it in America. That growth has no signs of slowing and will only increase with the World Cup coming to North America in 2026. So that leaves me to ask 28, why not 36?

Well, 36 just doesn't work for me in terms of competition or entertainment. Both MLS and the United Soccer League only play 34 games a season, which means the most you're playing each team is once, with one team that you just don't play. This isn't good for rivalries, something that MLS loves for marketing purposes, since you don't get home and away games against your arch enemy. Sure, you can split up into two conferences and only play within them, but that idea is very much in the past. Major League Baseball began having interleague play in the late 90s and has only increased it since.

So one massive league doesn't seem great, but neither does stopping at just 28. This is why I'm suggesting forming a two division, 36-team, closed-door form of promotion-relegation. The pro/rel debate has been raging in the US for a while now. Closed-door is the closest thing we can get to pleasing the adamant proponents of pro/rel as well as those that see the advantages of a closed system. Two 18 team divisions, let's go ahead and call them MLS 1 and MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo, would be an improvement for the promotion fans, while the closed system fans would get the nice pocket boost of the 36 teams. This may seem crazy and something that not many people would be championing, but I want to show you how it would go about happening and the cities that would help round out that 36 number anyway.

How We Get There

Timeline of expansion
Gif from Major League Soccer

July 2026. The final of the first ever 48-team World Cup has just happened, most likely in MetLife Stadium in New York City (*cough* New Jersey *cough*). This is when soccer will have peaked in the United States. This wave of momentum would be perfect timing. They can use this interest boost to launch Major League Soccer in new markets. I wouldn't expect them to make it all the way up to 36 teams by then, though at the current pace of expansion it would've hit that number by 2025. That momentum will have begun a year or two beforehand and will extend a year or two after, meaning this is the perfect time to build fan bases, and businesses, in new MLS markets. 

It is once things get to 36 teams that things get more complicated. How does one go about placing 36 teams into two 18-team divisions? The worst thing they could do is hand select the teams they want to keep in MLS 1. I'd rather propose to go about things more earned, more systematic. 

Despite how I said 36 teams were too many for one league, we're going to have to deal with that for a couple seasons in the sake of having competitive and fair divisions. Once we reach the target amount of teams, they'll be split into two 18-team conferences, East and West. The eastern-western split is two-fold. It helps reduce travel during this time, and after the division split it helps the newly formed divisions be spread out across the whole map. 

This will last for three seasons. The first season is just a regular season to crown a champion with only one implication on the future divisions. The champion of this first season, most likely determined through a playoff, will automatically gain entrance into MLS 1. This will also be the case for the all playoff champions during this time. The playoff being used to not only help stimulate interest during the initial year but subsequent two seasons. 

These next two seasons will be used to determine who fills out the two divisions. All the teams will have their points total between the two seasons. The top nine from each conference will be placed in MLS 1 and the bottom nine of each will be placed in MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo. I am working under the assumption that the champions would fit into the top nine categories, but if it were to not happen that way, then the champion would replace the MLS 1 team with the least points. 

Having two seasons to determine these teams is in order to better identify the best 18 teams, but also give our newest teams more time to establish themselves before potentially going to MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo. Now let's take a look at what would happen once we've established who is in which division. 

Once We Get There

Photo from Burgundy Wave

Once we have established this promotion-relegation thing, it will work very similarly to how they work in the nations that already have the system (for example, England), with the exception that MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo does not relegate to a lower league. 

Both divisions have 18 teams, so they will all play the other 17 teams in their division twice for a total of 34 games. The total points of those 34 games will help determine who is in which division the following year. In MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo, the top two teams will automatically gain promotion to MLS 1. The teams that finish 3 through 6 will be placed in a single elimination tournament, with the winner of the tournament gaining promotion.

Meanwhile, in MLS 1 there are two things that happen. On the lower end, the bottom three teams will automatically be relegated to MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo. Since this is still America, there has to be a playoff. So the top 6 teams will make a single-elimination tournament, with the champion gaining the MLS Playoff title. 

As you can see, once you get to the two leagues, things aren't overly complicated. The real tricky thing is trying to get there. Now that we've established how things get to there, let's look at the nine teams that are already in MLS (or soon to be) that will be added to the 36 team system based on rumors and lower division success. 

Meet The Teams

Photo from Sports Illustrated

Cites for expansion were chosen based on current MLS expansion rumors, TV and population metrics, and current trends in sports. Expansion cities are listed in alphabetical order. 

Detroit, Michigan - TV Market Rank: 14 - Population Rank: 23

Rendering of soccer in Ford Field
Photo from Detroit Free Press

Detroit is one of the most interesting cities that I am suggesting for expansion. They had a strong bid for the current round of expansion to 28 teams. A good ownership group with experienced sports owner Dan Gilbert (Cleveland Cavaliers/Quicken Loans) and local sports owner Tom Gores (Detroit Pistons). Add on to that a beautiful proposed downtown stadium that not only would've been a good venue but also would've helped in the revitalization of the city. 

Something along the way changed the bid in the eyes of MLS for the worse, and that thing was the success of Atlanta United. The ownership group of Detroit seeing this no doubt saw the crowds of 70,000 plus people in a city that people said soccer could never work in. Saw Atlanta top jersey sales charts. Heard the citizens of Atlanta talking about the Five Stripes. Not the Falcons who they share the building with. Not the Braves who made the playoffs. Not the young core of the Hawks. There's no doubt they saw this and thought, "why limit ourselves to a 20,000-seat stadium that we'd have to pay for once we can just use the 65,000-seat stadium that's already built?". Suddenly they went from a dark horse to gain expansion to the one team in the final four in the running for expansion that no one thought had a chance. 

Now if you go with 36 teams, I feel like Detroit is a shoo-in to get a spot. I legitimately feel like Detroit could be a sleeping giant of a soccer club, maybe not to Atlanta's level but definitely in the same vein.  Not just the city of Detroit, but the entire state of Michigan has always supported its sports teams. Add on to that the history and culture of Detroit. The music of Motown and the automotive industry have given the town a unique identity that's all its own. On top of that, you have owners with deep pockets. If the owners do this team right, it could rocket to the top, as long as the Detroit City FC supporters don't get in the way. Here's a great ten-minute documentary on Detroit City FC and the city by COPA90 (Link).

Indianapolis, Indiana - TV Market Rank: 28, Population Rank: 16

Rendering of Eleven Park

Photo from Indy Star

Indianapolis goes into the category of great sports city that'll support the teams in their city. This has already shown itself with soccer in the city. Indy Eleven moved last season to USL and to Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and their fans came with. Attendance grew a little over 1,000 people per game, finishing third in the league. The only teams with higher attendance were FC Cincinnati, whose fan support is a huge reason they're moving to MLS this spring, and the Sacramento Republic, who we will talk about later.  

Part of the hold up with Indy joining MLS has been stadium issues. The initial plan to secure funding for a stadium was voted down by the state, but in the past few months, a new plan has been announced. Dubbed Eleven Park, the project includes a 22,000-seat soccer stadium as well as shops, restaurants, offices, apartments and more. Currently, this project looks like a long shot at best, but we'll have to keep an eye on it, as it'll be brought to state legislators in the coming weeks. Here is a link to the Indy Star for further information on the project. 

Indy at the top division is something that probably wouldn't exist unless you go up to 36 teams. Between Chicago, Columbus, soon to be Cincinnati, and possibly Detroit, MLS has the Great Lakes pretty well locked up. However, if they go to 36 teams, there's more room for regional redundancies. Indianapolis, much like Detroit with Michigan, has sports teams that are supported throughout the entire state, and I believe if they reach the top division of soccer, that will carry over to that sport as well. Add on to this that Indiana has a large youth soccer scene thanks to great collegiate programs such as Indiana University and the others in the state. 

Las Vegas, Nevada - TV Market Rank: 39 - Population Rank: 28

A club for llamas, not drama

Photo from Las Vegas Lights

Vegas is probably the sexiest city in America for sports right now. The Vegas Golden Knights had a dream first season and great fan support. The Raiders are moving there in 2020. If the NBA or MLB decide to expand, or a team threatens to move, Vegas will naturally be one of the top choices. MLS is no exception for thinking Vegas could be in their future. 

The Las Vegas Lights just had plenty of success with fans in their first year. They have one of the coolest logos and jerseys in American soccer. Not to mention they have the most llamas per capita of any team in soccer (don't fact check me on that). 

Expansion gives MLS the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of what could be the next great sports city. The city is exciting and a destination. I think the city has shown that even if you aren't a fan of the team, you can still draw in away fans or neutral supporters that will want to include a match as part of their Vegas getaway. Currently, Las Vegas is the least along the expansion process (no stadium plan, no big ownership group). If you put a team in Vegas, it may not be a move that pays off in the short term financially, but in the long run, it could be a huge moneymaker. Who knows, maybe even fans will make some money, like they did during halftime last season (Link).

Phoenix, Arizona - TV Market Rank: 12 - Population Rank: 5

Drogba looks like he's dropping a book next fall
Photo from Score Nigeria

The metrics should love Phoenix's bid to join Major League Soccer. They are the largest city without a Major League Soccer franchise. They are one of only two cities on this list with a population of over a million. Add on to that one of the highest TV markets on the list.

One of the biggest concerns with putting a team in Phoenix is the heat. MLS runs a season that goes through summer and of course, being in a desert, Arizona is hot. The Diamondbacks of the MLB play with a roof, so the temperatures don't really affect them. The solution for MLS in Phoenix would probably take the form of the heating solutions that they are using for the 2022 Qutar World Cup. Here's a link to an article on just that. 

I think Phoenix would be a great option for the league. They would gain access to one of the largest US cities and put a team in an area that's not filled with other clubs, so it can represent the Southwest desert. 

Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina - TV Market Rank: 25 - Population Rank: 41 (Raleigh)

We could've had this dope Railhawks logo in MLS
Photo from Under Consideration

Raleigh/Durham might be a sneakily good expansion bid in terms of long-term competition. North Carolina is a hotbed of youth talent that may be currently underserved. The state currently is unclaimed territory in terms of MLS Homegrown region, something that teams like Sporting Kansas City have taken advantage of (further reading). If you want a team that can produce its own talent, few expansion bids have the opportunity to compete with North Carolina. 

Off the field, I think the Raleigh/Durham area has a lot of potential. The area is young and growing, something a league like MLS in a sport like soccer should love. It adds another team to the South, an area which in recent years has been great to the league. Additionally, it adds a team to a region of the Atlantic Coast that really has no other club. 

The area already has a team in the top level of soccer with the North Carolina Courage of the NWSL. The team on the woman's side has had a ton of success since moving to the Tar Heel state, winning the regular season Shield two straight years and making it to the playoff final both seasons, winning it in 2018. This could be a selling point for the team. Trying to sell officials on a venue for two teams is a lot easier than just one, and an ownership group for both could make things easier to convince the league to add them. 

Sacramento, California - TV Market Rank: 20 - Population Rank: 35

Hopefully, they can bring the ferris wheel
Photo from MLS Multiplex

It's time for the expansion sweetheart for a few years now. For so long Sacramento entering MLS has been a when, not an if. They have great fan support, finishing second in last year's attendance, just behind Cincinnati. They have a stadium that is ready to go, they pretty much just need to tell someone to start building. Despite this, MLS keeps passing them over in favor of other cities. 

The California capital may not be the most impressive in terms of the metrics. They don't blow you away. Yet they do represent the type of city that has done well in MLS. I see some similarities to Portland. The city only has one other sports team in the Kings, much like the Trailblazers in Portland. They are similar in size and both teams gained a strong following from the lower divisions. 

What I see in Sacramento is a team that is strong off the field. It's hard to argue against teams that have well-established supporters already in place coming into the league. Plus, if you can have a stadium that has all the approval off the field done, it is a massive advantage to gain an expansion spot. If you want to see some of these things in practice, check out this video on the Sacramento Republic club. 

Saint Louis, Missouri - TV Market Rank: 21 - Population Rank: 62

Archway, No way
Photo from National Park Services

St. Louis is one of the two cities I have in the "Screwed by the NFL" category. They had a team and they bolted just because of their lack of funding for a stadium, which might be a big hindrance to the city's shot at soccer. The fell out in the previous expansion round because of their inability to get a stadium deal.

St. Louis is a good soccer town with a history in the sport. A lot of people within the league notice this, as seen in this article. If you put a team there, people will support them, both as a good soccer city and sports city. 

St. Louis FC has done well in USL and it's time to move up. This is the city that seems obvious to add to MLS. They are in a good region to add to. They're in a city that loves its sports teams. Finally, they could be the great soccer city they have the potential to be. 

San Diego, California - TV Market Rank: 29 - Population Rank: 8

Footy McFootyface, gone too soon
Photo from Washington Post

Unfortunately, the world will never get the San Diego Footy McFooty Face, the greatest sports name in the history of soccer. The name won fair and square in a name the team contest and the club didn't honor it, which you can read about here. Still only the second biggest betrayal performed by Landon Donovan. 

San Diego fits into two of my special categories. First is the "Screwed by the NFL" category, since the Chargers moved up the coast to LA. They are also in the category of "Wow, They're Big. They should have a team. I think one of the main things holding them back is their proximity to Los Angeles. This is something I brought up with Indianapolis. In a smaller league, having that many times so close together would be a problem but, if you expand, it becomes less of a problem.

This is another team that has struggled with a stadium. They had a decent sounding proposal to go on the grounds of the former Chargers stadium, but that lacked governmental support. If they can figure out where to play and establish themselves from the LA clubs, they could have real success. 

Tampa Bay Area, Florida - TV Market Rank: 11 - Population Rank: 52 (Tampa specific)

I don't know why, but this is my favorite
Photo from Fun While It Lasted

Tampa Bay is in the rarest of rare categories in this expansion round: cities who once had a team but now don't. The Tampa Bay Mutiny, may they rest in peace, played in the league from the start until 2001. The end of their run was one of the darkest times in MLS history. They went under at a time when some believed the entire league might go too. Despite this dark ending, the support for soccer has remained high in the area. 

Tampa was one of the expansion hopefuls that could've worked. It was hurt by its proximity to Orlando and Miami. They sort of have their own field with Al Lang Stadium. In order to get the stadium ready, they'd definitely have to expand their capacity, as it currently only seats 7,000. 

Soccer is doing pretty well in the Tampa Bay area. They do decently in attendance. The headquarters of USL is in Tampa. Finally, there's been investments into the game in the area. The Tampa Bay Rowdies were recently acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays (story here), which should do nothing but help their expansion hopes. 

Recap

• Expand the league to 36 franchises
• Three seasons of 36 teams, two conferences of 18
• All three seasons you play the other teams in your conference twice, once home, once away
• The total points from the last two seasons are added together
• The top nine from each conference are placed in MLS 1
• The bottom nine are placed in MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo
• The three champions are automatically placed in MLS 1
• If they aren't in the top nine of their conferences, they take the place of the lowest point-getter in MLS 1
• There are then two 18-team divisions
• Each team plays all others twice, once home and once away
• Top six teams of MLS 1 make the playoffs
• The bottom three teams of MLS 1 are relegated to MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo
• The top two of MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo are promoted to MLS 1
• Teams 3-6 of MLS 2: Electric Boogaloo compete in a playoff, with the champion being promoted to MLS 1
• The nine cities added to the league are Detroit, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Raleigh/Durham, Sacramento, Saint Louis, San Diego, and Tampa Bay

To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter. You can also find me on Twitter @T_RoyStory (Troy)