By the end of this week, every NFL team will have multiple new players, some of whom could potentially become the face of a franchise, and some of whom will be cut before Week 1. For fans of many teams (including Cleveland Browns fans like myself), it's arguably the most important part of the year. It's an opportunity for a team to turn itself into a playoff contender, a Super Bowl contender, or at least a decent team (as opposed to a bad team). From round one through round seven, there can be contributors found. Players like Andrew Luck and Cam Newton can change the fate of a franchise. A combination of picks can help turn a team around, like Khalil Mack and Derek Carr have for the Oakland Raiders. Even picks in later rounds, like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and... what's that other guy's name... I want to say it's, like, Dom Prady or something... anyway, you get the point.
On the other hand, teams can badly miss on players early, and that can really set a team back. For all the Andrew Lucks and Cam Newtons, Zeke Elliotts and Adrian Petersons, or Dak Prescotts and Russell Wilsons, there are also JaMarcus Russells and Ryan Leafs, Justin Blackmons and Justin Gilberts, Trent Richardsons and... basically most of Cleveland's first round draft picks the last five years. The draft is all about taking risks and putting faith into a selection of players. Sometimes those risks pay off, and other times, a team is looking for a new general manager and head coach the next year.
With that in mind, I'm going to take a look at what I see as the major storylines leading up to Thursday night at 8:00 PM, give my 10-pick mock draft, and list a few of my favorite players in this draft.
QB Conundrum
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Deshaun Watson, Mitch(ell) Trubisky, Pat Mahomes, and DeShone Kizer.
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Quarterback is the riskiest position in the draft, especially this year. There doesn't seem to be an Andrew Luck in this draft. There doesn't even seem to be a consensus on who the top quarterback is. However, scouts and analysts have largely agreed on the top four: Clemson's Deshaun Watson, fresh off a National Championship; North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky (or Mitchell Trubisky, or Mitchy Trubisky, or whatever you want to call him), who only has one season of experience, but really impressed in that one season; Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes II, who has seemingly defied the stereotype of the "Air Raid" quarterback; and Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer, who showed flashes and a lot of pro potential despite a losing season. What nobody really knows is where these quarterbacks will go.
Last week, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Cleveland, which holds the first overall pick, is torn between Trubisky and defensive end Myles Garrett, the consensus top prospect in the draft. The Browns also have the 12th overall pick, but rumor has it Trubisky might be snatched up before then. Of course, in the week leading up to the draft, people need to be wary of rumors, since smokescreens abound.
If the rumor is true, the Browns could take a big risk and pick Trubisky first overall, or they could use some of the many draft picks they've acquired to trade up with the Jets, 49ers, or another team, to make sure they get Trubisky, while also getting Garrett (in fact, NFL Network's Mike Silver reported that a few teams have gotten calls from the Browns about trading up into the top eight). Garrett is viewed by many as a future All-Pro, and he's an athletic freak who could be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. But Cleveland, of course, is still yearning for a franchise quarterback, having failed at several previous tries.
As a Browns fan, I would love more than anything for them to finally land a franchise quarterback. However, I don't believe they should even consider a signal-caller with the first overall pick. The main reason I believe that is a 6'4", 272-pound dinosaur lover.
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| In my opinion, Myles Garrett should be the first overall pick. |
Myles Garrett is considered by most as the clear number one prospect, a physical specimen who can terrorize offensive linemen and run like a skill player (he ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash at the Combine). He's drawn comparisons to greats such as Julius Peppers, Jevon Kearse, and DeMarcus Ware. He's also very intelligent, and doesn't seem to have any character problems. All the signs point to him being an impact player for many years, and I just don't think you can pass that up for a high-risk player with a small sample size of experience. At least not with the first pick.
I am by no means a scout, but here are my brief evaluations of the top quarterbacks in this draft (garnered from watching them in college and/or reading scouting reports on them):
- Mitch Trubisky: He seems to have the physical traits (he's 6'2", 220 pounds) and accuracy (he completed 68 percent of his passes, and had 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions) to translate to the pro level, but he only started one season, and his Tar Heels lost to Duke and NC State late in the season. I think he has the intangibles to be a great NFL quarterback, but he doesn't have a large enough sample size to inspire complete confidence that he can be one.
- Deshaun Watson: Based on college production and leadership, Watson is the clear number one quarterback in the draft. He took the Clemson Tigers to the National Championship as a sophomore and won it as a junior. He was also a Heisman Trophy finalist both seasons. The biggest question concerning Watson is probably his accuracy, as he threw 17 interceptions last season and showed some shakiness throwing into coverage. However, he still completed 67 percent of his passes and threw 41 touchdowns, and I think he has the leadership and poise to succeed in the NFL.
- Patrick Mahomes II: The Texas-Tech product has good size (6'2", 225) and a big arm. His stats look great, of course, since he played in Tech's Air Raid offense, but he also has great physical skills. He was somewhat inconsistent, and he could be boom-or-bust at times, which also seems to be the best way to describe him as a draft prospect. He has potential, but it may take time.
- DeShone Kizer: Kizer's Fighting Irish had a rough season (they finished 4-8), but I pin that more on head coach Brian Kelly than Kizer. The 6'4", 233-pound Kizer has great physical traits and skills, and he showed flashes during the season, but he was inconsistent, and was benched for Malik Zaire on more than one occasion. He has shown the ability, he just has to put it all together.
There is a common theme with these quarterbacks. None are slam dunk prospects, and I honestly don't know which will be stars and which will fade away. Time will really tell with all of these guys. Beyond them are guys like Nathan Peterman of Pitt, Brad Kayya of Miami, and Davis Webb of Cal, as well as Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs, whom I think might be the closest thing to a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott in this draft. He's highly intelligent (he's a freakin' rocket scientist) and seems to posses good leadership qualities.
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Josh Dobbs could be a sleeper in this draft.
Nobody can be absolutely sure how the quarterback class will shake out in the draft until it actually happens. At this point, it's all just speculation. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
A Bevy of Backs
Jamal Adams could go as high as second overall.
While the quarterback class isn't perceived as a strong point in this draft, there is a plethora of potential playmakers in the secondary. At least two or three defensive backs could go in the top ten, and several more could be gone by the end of Thursday night.
Ohio State's Marshon Lattimore heads most big boards at cornerback, followed by "DBU" teammate Gareon Conley (who is currently being investigated for an alleged sexual assault, which he vehemently denies), along with LSU's Tre'Davious White, Alabama's Marlon Humphrey, Colorado's Chidobe Awuzie, and Washington's Kevin King and Sidney Jones, among others. All of these players could be off the board by the weekend, as well as others, like Michigan's Jourdan Lewis (the less-heralded Wolverine DB prospect), USC's Adoree' Jackson (a weapon in the return game), and the Florida tandem of Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor (what a name).
But cornerback might not have as much high-end talent as safety. LSU's Jamal Adams and Ohio State's Malik Hooker sit at the top, and they could both go in the top five. Beyond that are the versatile Jabrill Peppers (out of Michigan) and the athletic Budda Baker (out of Washington), followed by guys like N.C. State's Josh Jones and Florida's Marcus Maye.
If you're a team that needs help in the secondary, this draft has a lot to choose from, but they could go pretty quickly.
Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey head the running back class.
There are also some talented running backs to choose from, but not without risk. Leading the backfield prospects is LSU's Leonard Fournette, a beastly ball carrier who looked like a man among boys as a sophomore before getting slowed down by injuries last season. If he can stay healthy, he has all the physical tools to succeed, and he could make it too straight years that a running back goes in the top five (Zeke Elliott went fourth to Dallas in 2016).
After him are Florida State's Dalvin Cook, Stanford's Christian McCaffrey, and Oklahoma's Joe Mixon. Both Cook and Mixon have had off-field transgressions, but both are also supremely talented. The versatile McCaffrey was highly productive in college, but durability could be a concern. Tennessee running back Alvin Kamara is also in the conversation early.
Running backs generally have a short shelf life, but they can also make quite an impact right away. I think at least two or three backs in this class could end up being very productive for several years.
Mock Draft (First 10 Picks)
I told myself I wasn't going to do a mock draft, yet here I am, doing a mock draft. This mock will undoubtedly be wrong, as most mocks are, but it's who I think will go in the top 10 (not necessarily who I would pick if I were in charge of the teams in the top 10).
1. Cleveland Browns: DE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
There have been whispers that the Browns might take Mitch Trubisky first overall, but I think they'll make the smarter and safer move by selecting the dominant end from Texas A&M (although, with Cleveland, you never really know). Adding him to a defense that includes Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, and promising 2016 draft pick Emmanuel Ogbah could make Gregg Williams' unit a scary one next season.
2. San Francisco 49ers: DE Solomon Thomas, Stanford
The number two pick is a bit of a mystery. The Niners could trade down with a QB-needy team. They could also pick a safety (Jamal Adams or Malik Hooker), a cornerback (Marshon Lattimore), or even a running back (Leonard Fournette) or quarterback. Instead, I have them picking the athletic and talented 2016 PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year.
3. Chicago Bears: CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State
I've seen Alabama defensive end Jonathan Allen pegged here, but I think Chicago will focus more on the secondary. The Bears are in real need of a corner, which makes the skilled Ohio State product a good fit. In his first season as a starter last year, Lattimore was an All-Big Ten first-team selection.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: RB Leonard Fournette, LSU
Most mock drafts have the Jags selecting the talented SEC running back here, and I'm an agreeable person, so I'll slot him here as well. A trade down or a quarterback are also possibilities here, but signs point to a strong interest in the 2015 All-American.
5. Tennessee Titans: WR Mike Williams, Clemson
The Titans could trade down, and they're reportedly already in talks to. Marshon Lattimore has also been a popular pick here, and I think Tennessee will take him if he's still available. But since he's not in this mock, I have the Titans addressing another dire need by selecting the big playmaker from the National Champion Clemson Tigers.
6. New York Jets: S Jamal Adams, LSU
The Jets are another trade-down candidate, and they could even stay put and pick a quarterback. However, I don't think they'll pass on a playmaker in the secondary like Adams if he's still available here. Adams was an AP first-team All-American last season as a junior.
7. Los Angeles Chargers: S Malik Hooker, Ohio State
I started typing San Diego, then I remembered they're in L.A. now. That's going to take some getting used to. Many draft analysts have connected Hooker to the Chargers, and I have to agree.
8. Carolina Panthers: DE Jonathan Allen, Alabama
Everybody and their brother (or sister) has connected Stanford running back to the Panthers, but I just can't see the Panthers passing up Allen (who probably won't fall this far Thursday night, but did in my mock draft). The 2016 Chuck Bednarik and Bronco Nagurski Award winner (nation's top defender) could go as high as number two.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: LB Reuben Foster, Alabama
Before I get into this pick, let's have a discussion on a more important matter: spelling. For some reason, I always want to spell it "Cincinatti". Anyway, back to the pick. The Bengals will probably go defense here, and they've been connected to Foster, who won the Butkus Award (nation's top linebacker) last season.
10. Buffalo Bills: QB Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina
You thought I wasn't going to put a quarterback in the top 10, didn't you? The Bills could trade down (really, anybody in the top 10 could conceivably trade down), or select a playmaker like Alabama tight end O.J. Howard, but apparently (at least according to Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, who cited a scout with the team), Buffalo's interest in a quarterback is real.
Favorites
There are often players I just like. I just feel like these players will succeed, even without scouting them extensively. Here are some of my favorites:
Stats and information via NFL.com, ESPN.com, and BleacherReport.com |
