MLS Expansion

Soccer has experienced a high level of growth regarding popularity in both America and Canada. A direct beneficiary of this has been Major League Soccer, the highest soccer league in both countries. Since its inaugural season in 1996, the MLS has grown from 10 teams to 22 at the beginning of their 2017 season.

Atlanta United FC will begin play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium partway through its 2017 campaign.  

This season's introduction of expansion clubs Atlanta United FC and Minnesota United FC is far from the end game of soccer's development in North America. In 2018, led by an all-star ownership group and the construction of Banc of California Stadium, Los Angeles FC will make its debut. LAFC will be the second club in LA, after a few years of it being a single club town due to the collapse of Chivas USA. The team is already building strong support within its community, and it's clear that the city will easily be able to support having two teams now.

Banc of California Stadium is set to open in 2018 for the club's first year

The other city that's already been selected for an expansion club is Miami. This franchise has had a long road to the MLS that began in 2007 with David Beckham's contract with the LA Galaxy and the league, which allowed him the chance to purchase an expansion team for the price of $25 million. That price is a sixth of the current going rate of $150 million. In 2014, the league made it official and announced that Beckham and his investment group would be awarded the expansion, and since then it has yet to be smooth sailing. The team has had several plans in place to build a soccer-specific stadium in the city or surrounding areas, which have fallen short due to a variety of reasons. The league's goal is to have the team's roster up to 24 before the year 2020, but the longer it takes to get the tentatively-named Beckham United off the ground, the less likely it seems that this goal will be realistic.

The original plan was to have the stadium next to Marlins Park.

With the addition of Atlanta and Minnesota this year, as well as LA and Miami shortly, the MLS will be up to 24 teams. This amount is already larger than the Premier League (England), La Liga (Spain), and Bundesliga (Germany), three leagues that are all considered the best in the world. The gap between the population of the MLS and these leagues is set to continue to grow, as late in 2016, MLS commissioner Don Garber announced that the league plans to grow to 28 teams by the 2021 season. Currently, the plan is to add two teams in both 2020 and 2021. Due to this, the league is searching for the four cities where these teams will call home. The deadline for ownership groups to submit their bids for their cities to be considered was earlier this week, on January 31st.

Garber has been league commissioner since 1999

Now that there's an official list of candidate cities, it is time to take a look to see which city makes the most sense to place a new team. To go about this, I will first give some necessary information for each city, such as population (rounded to the nearest 1,000 people), median age, current professional soccer teams in the city (as well as teams from other sports), and some background about each city's bid. After that, I will rank the cities based on their likelihood of being selected by taking into account criteria such as location, size, existing fan bases, stability of ownership, and ability to build a soccer-specific stadium (all of which the MLS has stated they are also looking at, with the exception of location).

MLS attendance has grown steadily, with both
2015 and 2016 exceeding 21,000 a game.

Before I begin, I'd like to tell you why I've chosen these categories. The population seems relatively straightforward, which is why I added in average age. Age is a key factor when it comes to popularity with soccer. The younger the city, the better suited it is. The growth in popularity of the sport has come mainly from the millennial and young generations, so a young city is ideal for MLS. Having previous experience with professional soccer is helpful for a city, since it means a more established fan base, which the league looks positively on. Stability of ownership and the ability to build a soccer-specific stadium are big for the MLS, because of its history. Early in the league, teams didn't have the strongest ownership groups, which led to failure. And teams playing in nearly empty football stadiums produced a negative image of the league, which they are still trying to combat. Finally, the location will play a part in my rankings for the cities where teams are best suited. Much like how the southeast part of the US was a factor when the league added Orlando, Atlanta, and Miami to their roster, I forsee adding another team to the central part of the country and Northern California to be a part of Garber's decision.

Here is a map of the current cities that will have teams by 2020.

Both New York and LA will have two teams by that time.

Charlotte, North Carolina

Population: 810,000

Median Age: 34.3 

Existing Soccer Teams: Charlotte Independence (USL)

Other Professional Sports Teams: Charlotte Hornets (NBA), Carolina Panthers (NFL)

The efforts to bring an MLS team to Charlotte are being headed up by Marcus Smith, CEO and President of Speedway Motorsports. Currently, the group's bid to build a stadium is up in the air after the city council rejected a proposal for the city to spend $43.5 million on the stadium. 

A few key details about soccer in Charlotte. First is that Charlotte's Bank of America Stadium has played host to major soccer events before, such as the International Champions Cup. Another major plus that the city has is that it is one of two (the other being Miami) that is home to a school sponsored by FC Barcelona. This means that it's plausible that if the city were awarded an expansion team, there could be a partnership with Barca, much like how Manchester City partners with NYCFC. 

A render of Charlotte's proposed soccer stadium.  

Cincinnati, Ohio

Population: 298,000
Median Age: 32.7
Existing Soccer Teams: FC Cincinnati (USL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Cincinnati Bengals (NFL), Cincinnati Reds (MLB)

Cincinnati does not currently have a plan in place for a soccer-specific stadium, but what it does seem to have is local supporters. 2016 was FC Cincinnati's first season, and during that time it set a USL record for attendance record by topping 20,000 fans a game, just shy of the MLS average. Finding the room for a new stadium within city limits might be a challenge for the ownership group, but it seems like if they do, they won't have much trouble filling it.

FCC had an astonishing crowd of over 35,000 for its
friendly match against Crystal Palace

Detroit, Michigan

Population: 680,000
Median Age: 34.8
Existing Soccer Teams: Detroit City FC (NPSL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Detroit Red Wings (NHL), Detroit Tigers (MLB), Detroit Pistons (NBA), Detroit Lions (NFL)

The team of NBA owners Tom Gores (Pistons) and Dan Gilbert (Cavaliers) are behind the pursuit of bringing MLS to Motown. Part of this plan is to have a $1 billion development at the site of the downtown Wayne County Jail, which would include a 23,000 seat soccer-specific stadium. This is a bold and impressive effort, but the problem with this might be the public interest. Detroit is a great sports city with many passionate fans, but the city's only professional soccer team plays for the National Premier Soccer League, which is on the fourth level of the American soccer pyramid. To jump to Major League Soccer would mean entirely skipping two levels of play.

Detroit's proposed stadium would be part of a massive urban development. 

Indianapolis, Indiana

Population: 849,000
Median Age: 34.1
Existing Soccer Teams: Indy Eleven (NASL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Indiana Pacers (NBA), Indianapolis Colts (NFL)

Indianapolis does not seem like the sexiest pick for expansion, but what the city does appear to have is a nice mix of fan support and ability to build a stadium. In the Indy Eleven's first two seasons, they finished first in attendance in the NASL, and in their third season, they finished second. All three seasons saw the team fill its stadium to near capacity and continually improve on the field.

The other strength for Indy is their ability to build a stadium. They have a proposed $100 million, 20,000 seat stadium, their desired location picked out, and a thought out plan to pay for it. Currently, the plan is to have the stadium partially financed by private investors, and the rest through user taxes placed on things such as tickets and in-stadium merchandise/concessions sales.

The stadium's current proposed location puts it near
Lucas Oil Stadium and the White River.

Nashville, Tennessee

Population: 644,000
Median Age: 34.1
Existing Soccer Teams: None
Other Professional Sports Teams: Nashville Predators (NHL), Tennessee Titans (NFL)

Nashville is a vibrant city known for entertainment. However, what it is not known for is soccer. Nashville has never been home to a professional soccer team at any level. To go with this, the city does not have a completed plan for a soccer-specific stadium. The ownership group does have a proposed site for the stadium, and the city itself has the feel of other cities that have MLS teams (see Portland as an example).

Nashville's Nissan Stadium will play host to a 2017 Gold Cup match.

Phoenix, Arizona

Population: 1,537,000
Median Age: 33.8
Existing Soccer Teams: Phoenix Rising FC (USL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Phoenix Suns (NBA), Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB), Arizona Coyotes (NHL), Arizona Cardinals (NFL)

Phoenix has a few things going for its bid. First is its location. Of the twelve possible cities, Phoenix is the only one without another MLS team within 400 miles. Next is the city's demographics. Phoenix is home to a significant number of millennials and has a large Hispanic population, two groups where soccer is fairly popular. Finally is the proposed stadium. Not only is it privately funded and soccer-specific, both things that make the city and league happy, but it would also be climate controlled, a must for a team who would be playing home matches in a desert during the summer. Another plus is that Phoenix is not only the largest city on the list, but also the biggest city without an MLS team.

The stadium would be a 45-acre site with the club's academy attached.

Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina

Population: 692,000 (Total of the two cities)
Median Age: 32.5 (Average of the two cities)
Existing Soccer Teams: North Carolina FC (NASL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Carolina Hurricanes (NHL)

The biggest selling points for North Carolina's capital are its location and demographic. The cities are located in an area that isn't densely populated with other teams in the league. It also is at the center of what is known as The Triangle, the area between the colleges Duke, North Carolina, and North Carolina State. This location gives the area a young and growing population, which would benefit a soccer team.

The area's current team recently rebranded itself
as North Carolina FC.

Sacramento, California

Population: 485,000
Median Age: 33.7
Existing Soccer Teams: Sacramento Republic FC (USL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Sacramento Kings (NBA)

Sacramento has long been a favorite to be awarded one of the expansions, due to its fan base and excellent progress regarding a stadium. Sacramento is known for having one of the most passionate fan bases in the USL (last season their average attendance was technically higher than their stadium's listed capacity). Despite some recent setbacks, the team more or less has a shovel-ready plan for their stadium. The city's location also gives it an advantage, since having another team in northern California besides San Jose would help cement the league on the west coast.

The city's stadium plan has long been a selling point. 

San Antonio, Texas

Population: 1,437,000
Median Age: 33.1
Existing Soccer Teams: San Antonio FC (USL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: San Antonio Spurs (NBA)

There are many selling points for San Antonio. First is that it is being led by Spurs Sports & Entertainment, which is already an excellent ownership group. San Antonio FC, the city's current club, has had great success with building a fan base. The city is already home to Toyota Field, which gives it a soccer-specific stadium and, while it is currently on the small side, is already being designed for an expansion to increase it to 18,000.

While Texas already is home to FC Dallas and the Houston Dynamo, the state can easily house three MLS teams. San Antonio would also better represent the central and southern parts of America's second largest state. Aside from that, who wouldn't want to see a three-sided Texas Derby?

Toyota Stadium currently seats around 8,000, with plenty of
room for expansion. 

San Diego, California

Population: 1,381,000
Median Age: 34.5
Existing Soccer Teams: San Diego Flash (NPSL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: San Diego Padres (MLB)

While having the Chargers leave the city for LA may have upset many long time fans of the football team, it has done wonders for the city's MLS chances. San Diego has quickly become the sexiest pick for expansion. A proposed 30,000 seat, privately funded stadium on the site of Qualcomm Stadium, along with the fact that they handed the league commissioner their paperwork on the USS Midway, has made a big splash for the possible team.

The problems with San Diego are the lack of a previously established team and its proximity to LA. Having three teams competing for attention in Southern California might cause some problems.

The proposed stadium's capacity would put it in the top 5
amongst MLS stadiums.

Saint Louis, Missouri

Population: 317,000
Median Age: 35.0
Existing Soccer Teams: Saint Louis FC (USL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Saint Louis Cardinals (MLB), Saint Louis Blues (NHL)

Saint Louis is the current odds-on favorite to land one of the four expansions. Planning for an MLS team began shortly after the Rams left the city and has gained a lot of momentum. There seems to be a solid plan in place, and a lot of public support behind the team. There's not a lot to add to this, as at this point, it would be surprising to not be seeing a rivalry match being played in the coming years between Sporting Kansas City and Saint Louis.

The proposed stadium would seat 20,000+ every home game.

Tampa Bay/Saint Petersburg, Florida

Population: 612,000
Median Age: 38.6
Existing Soccer Teams: Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL)
Other Professional Sports Teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL), Tampa Bay Rays (MLB), Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL)

Tampa Bay was home to one of the original MLS teams when the league launched in 1996. The Mutiny were also one of two teams that were disbanded in 2002. This doesn't play well for the city, and it doesn't help that having the team would make a third team added in Florida in five years. The city has the oldest median age out of all the cities that applied, which doesn't help either. One thing they do have going for them is that they already have a soccer-specific stadium, which they can expand to better suit an MLS audience.

The proposed expansion would make Al Lang Stadium
significantly larger. 

Ranking of Potential Cities

1. Saint Louis, Missouri
2. Sacramento, California
3. San Antonio, Texas
4. Cincinnati, Ohio
5. San Diego, California
6. Indianapolis, Indiana
7. Phoenix, Arizona
8. Charlotte, North Carolina
9. Nashville, Tennessee
10. Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina
11. Detroit, Michigan
12. Tampa Bay/Saint Petersburg, Florida

Like I've previously stated, St. Louis and Sacramento seem as close to locks as you can get. I would also throw San Antonio in as a lock. These three accomplish the MLS's three top priorities: soccer-specific stadium, established fanbase/market, and ownership commitment. San Antonio already has stable ownership, a soccer-specific stadium, and a well-established fan base. Saint Louis and Sacramento both seem to have the same things, only their stadiums are not entirely built. Finally, these three accomplish something geographically. Sacramento and San Antonio cement the league in California and Texas. Saint Louis helps strengthen the league's brand in the central part of the country.

The fourth team to be added is less clear. It seems like any city I have listed 4th-9th could conceivably take that slot. They all have high points, and they all have weaknesses. San Diego has a strong proposal for their stadium, Cincinnati has a strong fan base, and Indianapolis has a little bit of both. Ultimately, the decision will come down to what the league values the most. If they think a soccer-specific stadium in an area is most valuable, they'll go with San Diego, but if they value fan base more, they'll go with Cinci. The reason why I personally have Cincinnati listed higher is that, while San Diego is flashy and has a beautiful stadium, you can't put a price on established fan bases. If you don't believe me, just look at MLS attendance since 2009, when Seattle came into the league, because that's an example of a club that came into the league with an already established fan base.

Every year since 2012, Seattle has averaged over 40,000 fans a game.

Now that I've given a rough outline of the teams that should be in the league, the next step is figuring out who joins in what year. Garber has gone on record by saying that the league plans to announce the two teams joining the league in 2020 by the end of the year. My thought is that they will have decided what four teams will be joining, but will only be announcing the two teams that will play in the early year.

The cities that would be most likely to make that 2020 date are Sacramento and San Antonio. Sacramento already seems like they could break ground on their stadium at the drop of a hat, and San Antonio already has their stadium even if it still needs to be expanded. Cincinnati and Saint Louis could both take those spots, though, if they can lock down the location for their stadiums soon.

In the meantime, while you wait for the league to announce their newest teams, you can prepare for the official MLS season, which begins in about a month's time, on March 3rd.

Minnesota United makes their league debut against the Portland Timbers
on Friday, March 3rd at 9:30 EST on FS1