Week 10 CFB Picks

The first College Football Playoff rankings this season came out on Tuesday. The top three teams (Alabama, Clemson, Michigan) were expected, but the committee provided a surprise at #4: one-loss Texas A&M. They put the Aggies ahead of unbeaten Washington, causing some consternation among fans and pundits alike. A&M's lone loss, of course, came against Alabama, a game it got routed in. The Aggies have played a tougher schedule than the Huskies, but it's hard to put a one-loss team ahead of a undefeated Power 5 conference team. It'll be interesting to see how the rankings change and shape as we get closer to bowl season.

Last Week: 12-5 (6-10 vs. Spread)
Overall: 114-43 (80-83 vs. Spread)

(Home Team Listed Last)

(In MACtion this week, #17 Western Michigan beat Ball State 52-20. I picked Western Michigan to win 42-21)


Thursday
#14 Oklahoma 48, Iowa State 20 (7:30 PM, ESPN)
The 6-2 Sooners travel to Ames for a Thursday night meeting with the 1-7 Cyclones, whose only win is against San Jose State. High-scoring Oklahoma (fifth in the nation in points scored) has won five in a row and should make it six in a row tonight.
UCLA 28, #15 Colorado 45 (9:00 PM, FS1)
In late-night Pac-12 action this week, UCLA battles Colorado. But instead of the Bruins being the ranked team, as many people expected at the beginning of the season, the Buffs are the number 15 team in the country. UCLA will struggle even more without quarterback Josh Rosen.

Friday
San Jose State 3, #24 Boise State (10:15 PM, ESPN2)
Boise State's hopes of making a New Year's Six Bowl were shattered last week, when the Broncos lost to Wyoming. They should get back on track on the blue field this week against 3-6 San Jose State, the team responsible for Iowa State's lone win.

Saturday
#4 Texas A&M 38, Mississippi State 21 (Noon, SECN)
The Aggies, who would be in the College Football Playoff if the season ended today, cannot trip up again if they hope to get in the playoff. They shouldn't this week against a 3-5 Mississippi State team that has lost to South Alabama, BYU, and Kentucky.
Vanderbilt 14, #9 Auburn 35 (Noon, ESPN)
Auburn got in the top ten in the inaugural Playoff rankings, its two losses being to #2 Clemson and #4 Texas A&M. Vandy doesn't pose much of a threat to the strong defense (8th in the nation in points against) and running game (3rd in the nation) of the Tigers.
#7 Louisville 45, Boston College 13 (Noon, ESPN2)
Louisville survived a big scare last Saturday against Virginia, thanks to Heisman favorite Lamar Jackson. Jackson and company shouldn't need to save the day this Saturday against an unspectacular Boston College team.
#8 Wisconsin 32, Northwestern 21 (Noon, ABC)
Northwestern almost pulled off an upset of Ohio State last weekend in Columbus, but the Buckeyes pulled it out. This week, star receiver Austin Carr and company face another test in Wisconsin, a team that just gave Nebraska its first loss.
Georgia Tech 24, #21 North Carolina 35 (12:30 PM, ACCN)
The triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets may keep it somewhat close, but Mitch Trubisky and the Tar Heels, who are fighting with Virginia Tech to win the ACC Coastal Division (and play in the ACC Championship) will get the win.
Maryland 17, #3 Michigan 40 (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Maryland in a solid 5-3, but the best of those five wins came against Howard, Florida International, Central Florida, Purdue, and two-win Michigan State. The Wolverines are 8-0, with just one of their wins coming by single digits.
Syracuse 21, #2 Clemson 38 (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)
Unbeaten Clemson has had to hold its breath often this season, surviving scares from Auburn (19-13), Troy (30-24), Louisville (42-36), NC State (24-17), and Florida State (37-34) The Tigers may have to survive another scare, but Syracuse isn't as big of a threat (although it did beat Virginia Tech).
#19 Virginia Tech 31, Duke 17 (3:30 PM, ESPNU)
Duke has beaten Notre Dame and played Louisville close. However, the Fighting Irish aren't very good this year, and the Cardinals still won by ten. Virginia Tech bounced back from a loss to Syracuse with wins over Miami and Pittsburgh.
#18 Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 24 (3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2)
This should be a good game between two decent Big 12 teams, and the final outcome could sway either way. I'll go with the Cowboys, who just gave West Virginia its first loss last week, over the Wildcats, who almost blew a lead to Iowa State last week (they won 31-26).
TCU 48, #17 Baylor 52 (3:30 PM, FOX)
Another enticing Big 12 matchup, this is sure to be a shootout. Baylor fell to Texas last Saturday, suffering its first loss of the season. The 4-4 Horned Frogs have faced tougher competition than the Bears, but they've lost two in a row and they're on the road.
#11 Florida 28, Arkansas 13 (3:30 PM, CBS)
The Gators have played pretty well (minus a ten-point loss to Tennessee), and this weekend they play Arkansas, which was ranked last week before losing to Auburn. Arkansas definitely has the ability to win this, but I'll go with Florida.
Arizona 28, #25 Washington State 48 (4:00 PM, PAC12N)
Mike Leach's pass-happy Cougars make their debut in the rankings this week. After losing their first two games of the season (Eastern Washington and Boise State), they have won five in a row, all within the Pac-12. Let's make it 6-0 in the conference after this weekend.
Kansas 7, #20 West Virginia 45 (7:00 PM, ESPN2)
West Virginia suffered its first loss of the season last week, getting routed by Oklahoma State and making the chances of a Big 12 team getting into the final four almost impossible. Fortunately for for the Mountaineers, they get 1-7 Kansas at home on Saturday.
#22 Florida State 32, NC State 24 (7:00 PM, ESPNU)
Florida State wasn't able to knock off Clemson last week, but it came very close. You know what other team came very close to knocking off Clemson? NC State. I expect the Seminoles to win, but the Wolfpack will make it interesting.
Iowa 17, #12 Penn State 28 (7:30 PM, BTN)
After starting the season ranked (and coming off a great 2015 season), 5-3 Iowa has fallen off. On the other hand, 6-2 Penn State has risen, especially after shocking Ohio State. Expect the Nittany Lions to take this one in Happy Valley.
#1 Alabama 38, #13 LSU 28 (8:00 PM, CBS)
Now we get to arguably the best games (on paper) of the weekend, both of which happen to be at 8:00 on Saturday night. I'd like to say LSU can pull the upset (and they do have a chance), but the Crimson Tide have looked unstoppable.
#10 Nebraska 28, #6 Ohio State 35 (8:00 PM, ABC)
The Buckeyes have been in a funk, especially offensively, following the Penn State loss with a poor showing in a win over Northwestern. They'll need to play better against Nebraska, which just suffered its first loss, and I think they will (especially at home in their throwback uniforms).
#5 Washington 52, California 44 (10:30 PM, ESPN)
The Huskies probably feel a little cheated after getting jumped by a one loss team, but all they can do now is continue winning. Anything can happen out west in the late hours, but Washington should be able to handle 4-4 Cal.