NFL Week 6 Picks

Tom Brady returned from suspension last week and promptly tore up the Cleveland defense to the tune of 460 yards and three touchdowns. That got me thinking about stability at the quarterback position. Brady took over behind center for New England in 2001, and has been a steady (and highly productive) constant ever since. Meanwhile, many teams (including New England before Brady came back) have had to shuffle through multiple quarterbacks already this season. 41 different quarterbacks have started games this season, and 52 have appeared in a game.

Some teams have thrived despite uncertainty at the quarterback position. The Minnesota Vikings are 5-0 even after losing starter Teddy Bridgewater to a torn up knee prior to the season, then trading for Sam Bradford and starting Shaun Hill in Week 1 so Bradford could learn the playbook. The team that traded Bradford to Minnesota, the Philadelphia Eagles, was going to start Bradford or Chase Daniel ahead of rookie Carson Wentz, but ended up starting Wentz, who has impressed in leading the Eagles to a 3-1 start. The Denver Broncos trotted out former seventh round pick Trevor Siemian as the starter to begin the season, and he (and the Super Bowl-winning defense) got them to 4-0 before sitting last week due to injury. The Patriots shuffled through Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Jacoby Brissett (and even considered resorting to starting former college quarterback Julian Edelman) during Brady's four-week suspension, but still came out of it at 3-1. And who could forget about Dallas rookie Dak Prescott, who has helped lead the Cowboys to 4-1 after starting the preseason third on the depth chart?

Other teams, predictably, have not been able to weather the storm of quarterback uncertainty. The quarterback graveyard that is Cleveland has seen Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, Cody Kessler, Charlie Whitehurst, and even Terrelle Pryor take snaps as signal-caller, and the Browns are the last remaining winless team at 0-5. The Chicago Bears have gone from ineffective Jay Cutler to ineffective (albeit efficient) Brian Hoyer, and have stumbled to a 1-4 start.

Interestingly, some teams that do have stability at the premier position have struggled thus far. Drew Brees and the Saints are 1-3 (thanks to a never-ending awful defense), Phillip Rivers and the Chargers are 1-4 (again, thanks to a poor defense, as well as injuries to key players), and Andrew Luck and the Colts are 2-3 (due to a weak supporting cast, especially on defense and along the offensive line).

Sure, quarterback is a very important position, but I think it is more important that a team has a strong defense and supporting cast, as well as a solid contingency plan in case something goes wrong. As we have seen, some teams (such as the Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings) have those important factors covered, allowing them to still succeed despite question marks surrounding the quarterback, while others (such as the Browns and Bears) don't have enough to survive chaos at the quarterback position.

Note: From now on, I'll be referencing my record against the spread (and paying more attention to the spread when picking), for those of you who are into that.

Last Week: 9-5 (7-7 vs. Spread)
Overall: 43-32 (36-40 vs. Spread)

(Home Team Listed Last)

Thursday
Broncos 34, Chargers 17 (8:25 PM, CBS)
Trevor Siemian is expected to start for Denver after missing last week's loss due to injury. The 4-1 Broncos win with their defense, while the 1-4 Chargers are defensively-challenged (athough first round pick Joey Bosa impressed in his debut last Sunday).
Sunday
49ers 14, Bills 21 (1:00 PM, FOX)
Colin Kaepernick has finally been freed from under the shadow of Blaine Gabbert, and I think it's for the better. However, he throws about as accurately as Gabbert (which is not a good thing), and he faces Buffalo's ferocious defensive line.
Redskins 28, Eagles 24 (1:00 PM, FOX)
The surprising Eagles suffered their first loss of the season last week (24-23 to the Lions), and I think they'll suffer their second loss to their NFC East rivals, who are on a three-game winning streak after losing their first two games.
Browns 21, Titans 17 (1:00 PM, CBS)
The Browns will win at least one game this season, and this might be their best chance. Cody Kessler looks like he'll get the start after leaving early last week with an injury. Both teams will probably lean on the ground game, since they both rank in the top five in the NFL in rushing offense.
Ravens 23, Giants 31 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Both of these teams are on losing streaks (Baltimore's lost the last two, New York's lost the last three), but the Giants have looked better and have more talent, and I think they'll get back on track this Sunday.
Panthers 32, Saints 38 (1:00 PM, FOX)
The Panthers have struggled mightily thus far, as have the Saints. Both have one win, but while New Orleans' three losses (and one win) were all by three points or less, just two of Carolina's four losses are, and they haven't looked great on either side of the ball.
Jaguars 28, Bears 16 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Neither of these teams are very good, as Chicago's one win was by three points over Detroit, and Jacksonville's one win was by three points over the Colts in London. However, the Jags are the better defensive team, and they'll get the win.
Rams 27, Lions 23 (1:00 PM, FOX)
This is a battle between two inconsistent teams. The Rams have lost 28-0, won 9-3, won 37-32, won 17-13, and lost 30-19. The Lions have won 39-35, lost 16-15, lost 34-27, lost 17-14, and won 24-23. I'll go with the Rams and their defense over the Lions and there offense.
Steelers 35, Dolphins 14 (1:00 PM, CBS)
The 'Fins lost by two possessions to the Titans last week, and their only win was in overtime over the winless Browns. The 4-1 Steelers, whose wins have all come by at least eight points, have too much talent for Miami to handle.
Bengals 27, Patriots 38 (1:00 PM, CBS)
Touchdown Tommy is back, and there is no stopping him. The Bengals will undoubtedly give Brady and the Pats more of a challenge than hapless Cleveland, but New England will emerge victorious thanks to Brady and his terrifying tight end tandem.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 31 (4:05 PM, CBS)
The underrated Raiders are 4-1, have one of the best offenses (statistically) thus far, and have a fearless risk-taking coach in Jack Del Rio. Kansas City has been inconsistent, picking Ryan Fitzpatrick six times two weeks ago, then giving up 43 to Pittsburgh last week.
Falcons 31, Seahawks 35 (4:25 PM, FOX)
This should be a fun game to watch, between Atlanta, the best offensive team in the NFL (457.4 yards per game), and Seattle, the best defensive team in the NFL (264 yards allowed per game). I'll give it to the Seahawks at home.
Cowboys 28, Packers 34 (4:25 PM, FOX)
The Cowboys, led by rookie sensations Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, are 4-1 and have the best rushing offense in the NFL (155.2 yards per game), but it's hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers and company at home.
Colts 21, Texans 28 (8:30 PM, NBC)
This is a key game in the race for the AFC South. Brock Osweiler and the rest of Houston's offense need to play better, but their defense may give Indianapolis' offensive line (and, by extension, Andrew Luck) some trouble.
Monday
Jets 21, Cardinals 27 (8:30 PM, ESPN)
The Monday night game pits two disappointing teams (so far) against each other. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to struggle for the Jets, and he's lost Eric Decker for the year. I keep expecting Arizona to get out of this slump, because they have the talent.