NFL Weekly Review/Preview: I'm Not Psychic

Psychic. Someone who can sense things or see into the future. One of my favorite television shows, Psych (check it out on Netflix), features a guy named Shawn Spencer who pretends to be a psychic (he's just hyper-observant) and helps solve numerous criminal cases. I am not going to try to be a psychic. I just try to generally predict how a team or player might do on a given week based on what I know and information I gather (and sometimes gut feelings as well). So far this season, I have been juuuuust a bit outside on some of my predictions, whether it be game picks or fantasy sleepers and busts. Since I believe people should be open about their mistakes and failures so they can learn from them and move on, I am going to reflect on some particularly bad predictions I have made through the first three weeks of this season. How about me picking the 49ers to beat the Cardinals last week? I was way off on that one, as the Cards destroyed San Francisco 47-7. Or me saying Larry Fitzgerald was a "bust" last week because I didn't believe he would replicate the week before? Yeah, he ended up catching nine passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Similar things can be said in the other direction about "sleeper" picks Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Week 2), Duke Johnson (Week 1), and David Johnson (Week 3), who went on to do nothing those weeks. This just shows that anything can happen, and nobody can predict everything. That's why you should look at my predictions as suggestions or evaluations rather than absolute truths or facts. Because I, like Shawn Spencer, am not a psychic (and, unlike him, I'm probably not a good fake psychic either).

Week 3 Review

Observations
This week, I'm going to take a look at the top three teams in the NFL after three weeks.
1. New England Patriots
All of the offseason distractions didn't seem to phase Tom Brady and the defending champs. They came into this season like a wrecking ball, winning their first three games relatively easily. Brady hasn't missed a beat despite his tumultuous suspension and appeal, throwing for 1,112 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The people around him have also been stellar, including diamond in the rough Dion Lewis, who has 325 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. The Patriots currently seem to be well on their way to a return trip to the Super Bowl.
2. Green Bay Packers
I say it all the time: Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. His combination of accuracy, arm strength, pocket presence, intelligence, confidence, and athleticism is unmatched. He may even be one of the greatest of all time. So far this year, he has 771 yards passing, 10 touchdowns, and zero touchdowns. It helps that he also has a bevy of options, including running back Eddie Lacy and receivers Randall Cobb and James Jones. And this is without number one receiver Jordy Nelson. The Packers offense has many weapons as the Patriots offense, and may be the best offense in the NFL.
3. Arizona Cardinals
From the best offenses, we shift to the best defense. Arizona's defense is crazy good. It's Pick City. So far this season, Arizona's ball-hawking defense, led by corner Patrick Peterson and safety Tyrann Mathieu, has seven interceptions, three of them returned for touchdowns. In last week's thrashing of the Niners, they picked off Colin Kaepernick four times and returned two of them for touchdowns. But it's not all defense in the desert. Carson Palmer, less than a year removed from knee surgery, has the fourth-best quarterback rating in the NFL. The revitalized Chris Johnson ran for 110 yards last week, and starter Andre Ellington may be back this week. The ageless Larry Fitzgerald leads all receivers in touchdowns (5). The Cards are squarely in the running for Super Bowl 50.

Play of the Week

Ah, the good old punt return fake-out. St. Louis did it to Seattle last year, and Sunday, Seattle did it to Chicago. Richard Sherman was the one who actually took the punt, and he returned it into the redzone in the Seahawks' blasting of the Bears. Honorable mention goes to all of the great catches in the Broncos-Lions game Sunday night and yet another artful catch by Browns wide receiver Brian Hartline.

Play of the Weak
This is a new section where I look at the worst play of the week, because who doesn't love laughing at things?

I'm not sure what Brandon was thinking here, since it wasn't a play where they had to get a touchdown or anything. He did redeem himself later by scoring a touchdown, but the Jets ultimately lost, and he himself called this play "the worst play in NFL history".

Game of the Week
Bengals 28, Ravens 24
This game was a battle between Ravens receiver Benjamin Button Steve Smith Sr. and Bengals receiver and Autobot A.J. Green. Smith had 13 catches for 186 yards and two touchdowns, but A.J. Green somehow outdid him, catching ten passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns, and the undefeated topped the winless Ravens on a touchdown pass in the final minutes. The Bengals are probably number four or five on my list of the top teams in the NFL right now.

Performances of the Week
Falcons RB Devonta Freeman vs. Dallas (W 39-28): 30 carries, 141 yards, 3 TD
With rookie running back Tevin Coleman out, Freeman got tons of carries, and made the most of them as the Falcons went to 3-0.
Bengals WR A.J. Green vs. Baltimore (W 28-24): 10 catches, 227 yards, 2 TD
Green and Atlanta's Julio Jones are probably the best pass-catchers (at least as far as production) in football right now. Nobody can stop them.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Kansas City (W 38-28): 24-35, 333 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
The best quarterback in the NFL tore up KC's defense Monday night, throwing five touchdown passes and continuing his amazing streak of home games without an interception.
Honorable Mention: Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin vs. Packers (L 28-38): 8 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
I had to make Maclin an honorable mention this week, not only because he went off after seeming non-existent in the first half Monday night, but because he caught Alex Smith and the Chiefs' first touchdown pass to a wide receiver since 2013. Well done, Jeremy.

Trending Up, Trending Down
Trending Up: Andy Dalton...Tyrod Taylor...The Cardinals...Fake punt returns...Bye weeks...Carolina...Cam Newton...Oakland...Derek Carr...Todd Gurley...Karlos Williams.
Trending Down: The Browns defense...The Dolphins defense...Baltimore...Healthy running backs...healthy quarterbacks...The 49ers...Colin Kaepernick.

Week 4 Preview

Quick Picks (Home team listed last)
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 23-14
Byes: Patriots, Titans
Ravens 31, Steelers 21 (Thursday, 8:25 PM, CBS/NFL)
Jets 24, Dolphins 17 (Sunday, 9:30 AM, CBS, in London, England)
Jaguars 17, Colts 28 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, CBS)
Giants 27, Bills 34 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, FOX)
Panthers 21, Buccaneers 16 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, FOX)
Eagles 31, Redskins 17 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, FOX)
Raiders 34, Bears 17 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, CBS)
Texans 24, Falcons 28 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, CBS)
Chiefs 31, Bengals 27 (Sunday, 1:00 PM, CBS)
Browns 23, Chargers 24 (Sunday, 4:05 PM, CBS)
Packers 35, 49ers 23 (Sunday, 4:25 PM, FOX)
Rams 13, Cardinals 21 (Sunday, 4:25 PM, FOX)
Vikings 26, Broncos 30 (Sunday, 4:25 PM, FOX)
Cowboys 33, Saints 28 (Sunday, 8:30 PM, NBC)
Lions 17, Seahawks 31 (Monday, 8:30 PM, ESPN)

Game to Watch
Texans @ Falcons
Dan Quinn and the Falcons have gotten off to a roaring start, thanks to an attacking defense as well as Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman. Houston is still in quarterback purgatory, but getting star running back Arian Foster back will be a big boost to the offense. He's a game-time decision this week, but he's getting closer to his anticipated return, and if he gets back this week and gets a good amount of action, he could tear it up.

Fantasy Sleepers and Busts
Sleepers
Bills RB Karlos Williams vs. New York Giants
It looks like Buffalo will rest the banged-up LeSean McCoy Sunday, which means more action for the rookie from Florida State. He has scored in each of his first three games, and he ran for 110 yards against Miami last week.
Jets RB Chris Ivory vs. Miami
Speaking of the Dolphins, guess who gets to face them in London this week? Ivory is a bit banged up, but he's expected to play, and if he does, he'll get to run against a defense that is 31st in the NFL vs. the run.
Saints RB Mark Ingram vs. Dallas
Ingram returns to this section for another week, and he's a good play whether Drew Brees plays or not. Last week, Ingram had 99 total yards and a touchdown, and this week he gets to go up against a defense that just allowed 141 yards and three touchdowns to Devonta Freeman.
Busts
Lions WR Calvin Johnson vs. Seattle
I love Megatron, but it hasn't been a very hot start for Johnson this season (by his standards). This week probably isn't the week he'll eclipse 100 yards receiving for the first time this season, as he's going up against Richard Sherman and the Seattle secondary.
Dolphins RB Lamar Miller vs. New York Jets
Miller is a middling running back option to begin with, and this Sunday morning against the strong Jets run defense will be tough sledding.
Steelers TE Heath Miller vs. Baltimore
Three reasons not to start Miller this week: 1) He plays on Thursday night, which gives you less time to consider your options; 2) The Ravens defense has stifled opponent tight ends thus far; 3) He lost his starting quarterback, and while Michael Vick is a serviceable backup, he's not Big Ben.