Here's the bracket: http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0711/2014_mlb_hrd_bracket.jpg
Contestants
American League:
Jose Bautista (Captain)-Blue Jays
Yoenis Cespedes-Athletics
Josh Donaldson-Athletics
Brian Dozier-Twins
Adam Jones-Orioles
National League:
Todd Frazier-Reds
Justin Morneau-Rockies
Yasiel Puig-Dodgers
Giancarlo Stanton-Marlins
Troy Tulowitzki (Captain)-Rockies
American League
Jose Bautista
Stats: 17 HR, .502 SLG, .210 ISO
Derby Appearances: 2 (2011-1st Round; 2012-Runner-Up)
Analysis: Bautista, the AL captain, is always a power threat, and has experience, so he is among the contenders.
Prediction: Quarterfinals
Yoenis Cespedes
Stats: 14 HR, .442 SLG, .195 ISO
Derby Appearances: 1 (2013- Champion)
Analysis: Cespedes is the defending champion, so he's obviously on everyone's favorites list. But recent history doesn't bode well for Cespedes, as Robinson Cano, the 2012 champ, hit 0 in last year's Derby.
Prediction: Runner-Up
Josh Donaldson
Stats: 20 HR, .449 SLG, .211 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: Donaldson, Cespedes's teammate, has a nice home run total this year and is excited to be participating. He's a dark horse candidate.
Prediction: Round 1
Brian Dozier
Stats: 18 HR, .436 SLG, .194 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: Dozier is probably an underdog, being a middle infielder who didn't show much power before recently. But he does have familiarity with Target Field and the support of the home crowd.
Prediction: Semifinals
Adam Jones
Stats: 16 HR, .486 SLG, .186 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: Jones will be entertaining and a power threat, although he plays in the homer-friendly Camden Yards and has one of the lesser home run totals among the participants.
Prediction: Round 1
National League
Todd Frazier
Stats: 19 HR, .500 SLG, .210 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: I, of course, will be rooting for the Toddfather tonight, and believe he is a strong dark horse candidate. Remember, this is the same man who did this: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MSqZC1uW1TM
Prediction: Semifinals
Justin Morneau
Stats: 13 HR, .502 SLG, .182 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: this is a nice story, as Morneau was a fan favorite in Minnesota for a number of years. However, he only has 13 home runs and plays in Coors Field.
Prediction: Round 1
Yasiel Puig
Stats: 12 HR, .522 SLG, .213 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: Puig will provide lots of entertainment and showmanship, but he only has 12 home runs. Then again, he may thrive in this environment.
Prediction: Quarterfinals
Giancarlo Stanton
Stats: 21 HR, .538 SLG, .241 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: Stanton is the clear-cut favorite, as he smashes moon shots regularly, and he has the largest average home run distance in the league. He's the guy to beat.
Prediction: Champion
Troy Tulowitzki
Stats: 21 HR, .613 SLG, .268 ISO
Derby Appearances: 0
Analysis: Tulo, the NL captain, has impressive numbers and is by far the best shortstop in Major League Baseball, but he, like Morneau, plays in the Mile High City, and his Home-Road splits (Home: .419/.497/.748; Away: .265/.367/.463) show the effects of Coors Field.
Prediction: Round 1
These predictions are basically stabs in the dark, as anyone of these competitors could take home the trophy. I used ESPN.com and FanGraphs as statistical references.
The 2014 Home Run Derby is tonight at 8:00 ET on ESPN from Target Field in Minneapolis.
(Note: SLG=Slugging Percentage; ISO=Isolated Power (Slugging percentage minus average). Slash lines are AVG/OBP/SLG)
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