College Football 2019: Week 1

It has finally arrived. After getting a small sampling of college football last weekend, we get our first full course meal of the season this week. Sure, there may be more cupcakes than prime steaks on this slate, but there are still some juicy entrees.

Even with just two Division I-A games to keep us entertained last Saturday night, there was plenty of buzz. Miami busted out some new bling but still lost, despite Florida nearly gifting them an entire game-winning touchdown drive via pass interference penalties. But that was nothing compared to the late game, which featured Hawai'i quarterback Cole McDonald getting benched after throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions in the first half, and ended on this incredible play.

This week's 73-game slate spanning five days is sure to bring a lot more wild endings and tweet-worthy moments. From here on, 2019's weekends will be filled with football. Prepare yourselves.

Game of the Week

#11 Oregon vs. #16 Auburn 
(Arlington, TX, Saturday, 7:30 PM, ABC)

Not only does college football seriously start this weekend (not that Week 0 wasn't serious, but it's Week 0), the weekly Oregon Uniform Watch starts this Saturday. Will they wear neon? Will they wear all black? Will they trot out wearing recycling bins? Who knows!?

We also get our first chance this season to see top NFL quarterback prospect Justin Herbert, who went back to Oregon despite the possibility of being a top ten pick in the 2019 draft. He has an experienced offensive line and skilled weapons to work with, but he and the Ducks will have a tough test to start the season, playing perennial SEC contender Auburn in AT&T Stadium.

The Tigers, as usual, have plenty of talent, especially on defense (they have multiple defensive lineman on top 2020 NFL Draft prospect lists), but they will be starting a true freshman quarterback (Bo Nix). Auburn struggled offensively in 2018 and hope that Nix can help improve the offense. The team will likely rely heavily on the running game again, especially in Nix's first ever college game.

This will likely be a tightly-contested contest, with Oregon's talented and experienced offense going against Auburn's ferocious defense while Auburn's inexperienced and inefficient offense facing Oregon's questionable defense. I'm going with the experience quarterback over the true freshman.

Spread: AUB -3.5

Over/Under: 55.5

Prediction: Oregon 27, Auburn 24

Upset Alert

Northwestern @ #25 Stanford 
(Saturday, 4:00 PM, FOX)

With a lot of "cupcake" games this week, it was hard to find a potential upset that I could plausibly see happening. I went all the way down the AP Top 25 until I found a ranked team I could see getting upset this week. That team is Stanford, which takes on Big Ten foe Northwestern in a good ol' school football matchup Saturday afternoon.

While it's still a bit of a mystery how Northwestern's offense will look (head coach Pat Fitzgerald won't say whether redshirt senior T.J. Green or Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson will start at quarterback), but the Wildcats will be stout defensively, partly thanks to All-American linebacker Paddy Fisher, who does not have the name of a star linebacker.

Stanford lost a lot of talented offensive players, but still has quarterback K.J. Costello. Although Costello will have some new faces around him, he'll also have top NFL prospects in tackle Walker Little and tight end Colby Parkinson. The defense is strong and experienced, and includes Paulson Adebo, one of the top cornerbacks in the country.

Although the talented quarterbacks could prove me wrong, I'm guessing this will be a low-scoring, gritty, ground-and-pound battle. And Northwestern is good at winning low-scoring, gritty, ground-and-pound battles.

Spread: STAN -6.5

Over/Under: 47.5

Prediction: Northwestern 24, Stanford 21

Unranked Game of the Week

Boise State vs. Florida State 
(Jacksonville, FL, Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN)

Although the teams with numbers next to their names take front-row seats in the minds of the general public, games between unranked teams often end up being the most interesting. In this space, I'll try to highlight the most appealing non-ranked matchup every week. This week's matchup features two teams that aren't strangers to the AP Top 25, but enter this season devoid of the luster they had just a few years ago. 

Boise State captured double-digit wins again last season, but lost the Mountain West title to Fresno State. The Blue Field Broncos enter 2019 with a new quarterback. True freshman Hank Bachmeier will start under center for BSU on Saturday. He was a highly-rated recruit and has skilled wide receivers to throw to, but he won't be able to ease into his college career. Defensively, Boise State is led by its line, which features preseason Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Curtis Weaver.

The Seminoles have had a rough few seasons. After hiring Willie Taggart as head coach last year, the Noles stumbled to a 5-7 record. They'll look to get back to the postseason in 2019. Incumbent James Blackmon held off Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook for the starting quarterback job. Since Blackmon sat out four games in 2018, he'll enter his third season as a sophomore. He'll be aided by star running back Cam Akers, who led the team in all-purpose yards as a sophomore last year. If the offensive line plays better, the offense could flourish. Despite losing first round pick Brent Burns, the FSU defense could be improved this season.

Both of these teams are hoping to bounce back after disappointing (but not equally disappointing) 2018 seasons. If this game doesn't get ruined by a hurricane, I think the inexperience on offense for Boise State will prove to be the difference.

Spread: FSU -4.5

Over/Under: 51.5

Prediction: Florida State 28, Boise State 23

Other Top 25 Games

Thursday

Florida A&M @ #17 UCF (7:30 PM, CBSSN)

With McKenzie Milton on the mend, Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush is the starting quarterback for the back-to-back defending National Champions. The Knights might be able to win this game with an actual bush playing quarterback.

Spread: UCF -48  O/U: 65.5

Prediction: UCF 55, Florida A&M 3


Georgia Tech @ #1 Clemson (8:00 PM, ACCN)

After hiring a new head coach, Georgia Tech will no longer run the triple option. The triple option was one of the few things the Yellow Jackets had going for them. Maybe if they still ran the triple option, I would consider the upset here (I wouldn't).

Spread: CLEM -36  O/U: 60.5

Prediction: Clemson 62, Georgia Tech 17

Texas State @ #12 Texas A&M (8:30 PM, SECN)

They take their football seriously in Texas, but I'm not taking this game seriously. 

Spread: TAMU -33.5  O/U: 56.5

Prediction: Texas A&M 44, Texas State 13

#14 Utah @ BYU (10:15 PM, ESPN)

As the Cougars showed last season when they upset Wisconsin, they should not be taken lightly. Utah, which barely beat them last season, is well aware. BYU will give the Utes a run for their money, but I think Utah will pull it out.

Spread: UTAH -6.5  O/U: 48

Prediction: Utah 32, BYU 28

Friday

Tulsa @ #18 Michigan State (7:00 PM, FS1)

As long as the Spartans don't wear these atrocities for this game, they should win.

Spread: MSU -23.5  O/U: 47.5

Prediction: Michigan State 30, Tulsa 14

#19 Wisconsin @ South Florida (7:00 PM, ESPN)

The Badgers have a new quarterback in Jack Coan, but they'll be led by stud running back Jonathan Taylor, who has the NCAA record for most combined rushing yards in his freshman and sophomore seasons. If Quinton Flowers was still USF's quarterback, I might pick the upset. He's in the NFL now.

Spread: WIS -12.5  O/U: 59.5

Prediction: Wisconsin 38, South Florida 21

Saturday

Florida Atlantic @ #5 Ohio State (Noon, FOX)

Saturday begins the dawn of a new era at Ohio State, as Ryan Day starts his first season as the full-time head coach and Auburn transfer Justin Fields starts his first game as a Buckeye. They probably won't be challenged much by Lane Kiffin's team.

Spread: OSU -27.5  O/U: 63.5

Prediction: Ohio State 52, Florida Atlantic 17

Northern Iowa @ #21 Iowa State (Noon, FS1)

Iowa State starts off the season by hosting Iowa's other team (i.e. not Iowa or Iowa State). The Panthers did upset the Cyclones three years ago, but that was three years ago. At best, Northern Iowa is the third best team in Iowa. I can only name three teams from Iowa.

Spread: ISU -18.5  O/U: 41.5

Prediction: Iowa State 37, Northern Iowa 13

South Alabama @ #24 Nebraska (Noon, ESPN)

Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez begins his Heisman campaign on Saturday. The Huskers went 0-6 to start the 2018 season. They will not start 0-6 this season.

Spread: NEB -36  O/U: 66

Prediction: Nebraska 55, South Alabama 14

Eastern Washington @ #13 Washington (3:00 PM, PAC12)

The only thing I know about Eastern Washington football is that the Eagles have a red field. Actually, that's not true. I also know that Eastern Washington will not beat Washington on Saturday.

Spread: WAS -21  O/U: 54.5

Prediction: Washington 48, Eastern Washington 17

Duke @ #2 Alabama (3:30 PM, ABC)

Alabama might make things interesting, but Duke just has too much talent... oh, wait, this is football. Bama by 30.

Spread: ALA -33.5  O/U: 57

Prediction: Alabama 54, Duke 24

Idaho @ #15 Penn State (3:30 PM, BTN)

Trace McSorely is gone. In his place is redshirt sophomore Sean Clifford, who will have plenty of talent around him, including sophomore running back Ricky Slade, whose name does not sound real. Idaho has potatoes.

Spread: PSU -39.5  O/U: 58.5

Prediction: Penn State 44, Idaho 10

#22 Syracuse @ Liberty (6:00 PM, ESPN+)

The Orange should smash Liberty. On the bright side, "Syracuse" isn't in the United States Constitution. But that's the only bright side.

Spread: SYR -18.5  O/U: 68

Prediction: Syracuse 38, Liberty 16

#3 Georgia @ Vanderbilt (7:30 PM, SECN)

Vandy has some talented players, so this won't be a cakewalk for Georgia. But Georgia has Jake Fromm State Farm (which, according to his Twitter account, is the name of UGA's starting QB).

Spread: UGA -21.5  O/U: 58

Prediction: Georgia 42, Vanderbilt 21

Georgia Southern @ #6 LSU (7:30 PM, ESPNU)

Before traveling to Texas next week, the Bayou Bengals host a team from southern Georgia. LSU will be looking ahead to the Longhorns, but the Tigers can look ahead when they're playing a team so much less talented than them.

Spread: LSU -27.5  O/U: 52.5

Prediction: LSU 37, Georgia Southern 10

Middle Tennessee @ #7 Michigan (7:30 PM, BTN)

I doubt the Middle Tennessee football team will have the same luck against Michigan that the Middle Tennessee basketball team had a few years ago against Michigan State. No Cinderella story here.

Spread: MICH -34.5  O/U: 54

Prediction: Michigan 52, Middle Tennessee 14

Miami (OH) @ #20 Iowa (7:30 PM, FS1)

The solid Hawkeyes lost their best wide receiver and two NFL tight ends, but return multiple key contributors, including quarterback Nate Stanley. Even if this was Miami (FL) instead of Miami (OH), I think Iowa would win.

Spread: IOWA -21.5  O/U: 47

Prediction: Iowa 35, Miami (OH) 14

Louisiana Tech @ #10 Texas (8:00 PM, LHN)

It appears that Texas is finally, truly #Back, as they finished 2018 strong and have a potential Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. Tom Herman lost his first two season openers at Texas, but he should be able to win this one. 

Spread: TEX -20.5  O/U: 55

Prediction: Texas 45, Louisiana Tech 21

New Mexico State @ #23 Washington State (10:00 PM, PAC12)

Anything can happen late Saturday night at Washington State, but what probably will happen is Mike Leach will break in a new quarterback with a thrashing of New Mexico State.

Spread: WSU -31.5  O/U: 64.5

Prediction: Washington State 44, New Mexico State 14

Sunday

Houston @ #4 Oklahoma (7:30 PM, ABC)

To fill the void of one more Sunday without the NFL, we have Sunday night college football this week. Houston has a new coach (Dana Holgorsen) and an enticing quarterback (D'Eriq King), but it'll be tough for the Cougars to topple Lincoln Riley's Sooners.

Spread: OU -23.5  O/U: 79.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 55, Houston 34

Monday

#9 Notre Dame @ Louisville (8:00 PM, ESPN)

The holiday weekend ends with some college Monday Night Football. The Fighting Irish will look to traverse a tough schedule and grab a Playoff spot. Louisville will look to win more than two games this season. Remember Lamar Jackson? That seems like so long ago.

Spread: ND -18  O/U: 54.5

Prediction: Notre Dame 40, Louisville 17

Last Week: 1-1  vs. Spread: 2-0  Over/Under: 1-1

Stats and info via ESPN, Sport-Reference, Bleacher Report, Sporting News, AP, and Odds Shark

Lines via Odds Shark

Lines as of Wednesday Afternoon

College Football 2019: Week 0

Really nice of them to dedicate an entire week to this kid

Football season has sort of crept up on me this year. Don't get me wrong, I have still been anticipating the start of football for months (especially with it being The Year of the Browns™). But, between graduating and job hunting, I've been busy focusing on things besides football. I haven't even set a date for my fantasy football leagues' draft yet. But after attending a high school football game last night (the first meaningful football I've seen since February), I am in full football mode. And just in time, too, as we get our first taste of meaningful college football today. 

Since there are only two high Division I college football games today, it isn't technically categorized as the first week of the college football season. Instead, it is Week 0. I, for one, think it's kind of mean to label a week "Week 0", because that carries a negative connotation. But weeks don't have feelings, so I guess it doesn't matter. Regardless, we finally get to witness some real, meaningful football tonight. I'm excited. Let's get started.

Note: All Times Eastern

Game of the Week

Miami vs. #8 Florida (Orlando, FL, 7:00 PM, ESPN)

The college football season kicks off with a neutral site game between two in-state rivals. The Gators are riding high after a 10-3 2018 season that culminated in a Peach Bowl thwacking of Michigan. They return several talented skill players, including quarterback Feleipe Franks, who, aside from being a productive quarterback, has a wonderfully alliterate name. On the other sideline is "The U", which was back and then wasn't back. The Hurricanes stumbled to a 7-6 record in 2018, and they now have a new head coach in former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz (who never lost a game as head coach at Temple). The man behind center will be new, too, but it won't be Ohio State transfer Tate Martell or returning starter N'Kosi Perry. Instead, it will be redshirt freshman Jarren Williams. 

Despite all the talent on offense, though, this could be a defensive battle, as both teams have experienced defenses and inexperienced offensive lines. Miami has a ferocious defensive line, led by junior end Jonathan Garvin, who tallied 5.5 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss last season. That line, plus a veteran-laden linebacking corps, leads a unit that finished 11th in the nation in sacks in 2018. Florida also has plenty of experienced defensive talent, including defensive end Jabari Zuniga, who had 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for a loss last season, and cornerback C.J. Henderson, who might be the best defensive back in the country.

Although Miami is unranked and Florida is a top-ten team, I think this game will be a tight battle until the end. Both of these teams want to claim Floridian dominance and start the 2019 season off on the right foot. I'm predicting the first primetime game of the season to feature multiple turnovers and key special teams plays, and I'm taking Franks and the Gators to pull out the victory.

Line: FLA -7

Over/Under: 45.5

Prediction: Florida 27, Miami 23

Other Game of the Week

Arizona @ Hawai'i (10:30 PM, CBSSN)

Since there are only two Division I-A games this week, they can both be "Game of the Week". Although the Florida-Miami game is the main event, don't sleep on this juicy undercard. The Wildcats entered last season with high expectations after the breakout of quarterback Khalil Tate and the hiring of former Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin, but Tate played banged up all year and Sumlin's defense struggled, leading to a 5-7 record. Tate is back for 2019 and completely healthy, and Arizona hopes he shows what put him on preseason Heisman lists in 2018. He'll be helped by the return of running back J.J. Taylor, who ranked seventh in the country last season in rushing yards and eighth in all-purpose yards. On defense, Arizona should be better this season, but that isn't saying much. The Wildcats had one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 last year, giving up 432 yards per game.

Much like Arizona, Hawai'i is the type of team that is much more enjoyable to watch on offense than defense. The Rainbow Warriors will air it out with quarterback Cole McDonald, who finished 2018 with 3,875 yards passing, 36 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Hawai'i ranked ninth in the nation last season in passing yards per game, and figure to rank high in that category again despite losing a guy who had 16 receiving touchdowns last season. Defensively, the Warriors are somehow worse than the Wildcats, surrendering 439.7 yards per game last year. Hawai'i went 8-6 last season, a major improvement from the year before, and hope to improve again in 2019.

This late-night game in Honolulu will likely be a wild one filled with plenty of offense, and it could come down to the wire. I feel a bounce-back season coming for Khalil Tate, and I think he and the talented Arizona offense will outpace the high-flyin' Hawaiians.

Line: ARI -10.5

Over/Under: 71.5

Prediction: Arizona 48, Hawai'i 40

2018 Record: 188-61   vs. Spread: 95-123-3   Over/Under: 101-118-2

Stats and Info via ESPN, CBS Sports, Athlon Sports, SBNation, and Sports-Reference

Lines and Over/Unders via Odds Shark