Friday, December 1, 2017

Week 14 College Football Picks: Championship Week



Play of Week 13: "Can't Stop, Won't Stop"


Yes, I am kind of cheating here. Technically, this isn't college football (it's high school football), and it's technically from the weekend before last. But I had to put this in here, because it may be the most favorable roll of all time. This punter from Raby, Illinois, put some kind of spell on this ball.


(Mis)Play of Week 13: "Mistakes Were Made"


I'm going to stick with punters for the (Mis)Play of the Week. I enjoy this video because you get to see the birth, death, and mutilation of a dream in just 30 seconds. I don't know if this was designed to be a fake punt or not, but it looks to me like the punter is about to punt it, notices that he seemingly has plenty of room to run, starts running, quickly realizes that he has made a grave mistake, and then basically makes things as bad as they can possibly get. Either way, it's great entertainment.


Performance of Week 13: USF and UCF


I am throwing all of the rules out the window, but they are my rules, so I can do whatever I want. Anyway, the South Florida-Central Florida game last Friday night may have been the most exciting college football game this season (so far). The two prolific offenses engaged in a dogfight for 60 minutes. USF quarterback Quinton Flowers threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns (227 of those yards and one of those touchdowns was to Tyrie McCants), while UCF QB McKenzie Milton threw for 373 yards and four touchdowns. Charlie Strong's team did all it could to give Central Florida its first loss of the season, equaling the score at 42 with 1:41 to play. But on the ensuing kickoff, Mike Hughes went 95 yards to the house to give the Knights a 49-42 lead. The Bulls tried to mount another game-tying drive, but it ended after a fumble on the third play. Unbeaten UCF survived USF to go to the AAC Championship.



Championship Week Picks

Record
Last Week: 16-4   vs. Spread: 13-5-1   O/U: 8-11
Season: 193-45   vs. Spread: 111-97-4   O/U: 99-112-1

Pac-12 Championship
#12 Stanford 28, #10 USC 24   Line: USC -4   O/U: 59 
When: Friday, 8:00 PM, ESPN
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Playoff Stakes: Win or lose, Stanford won't be in the playoff. If USC wins, the Trojans will need a lot of help from other teams and the committee.

The ground-and-pound Cardinal, led by banged-up Heisman candidate Bryce Love (1,848 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the season), face off with the talented Trojans (3,462 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season) to kick off Championship Weekend. USC may have more talent, but Darnold and company have been shaky this year. I was impressed by Stanford sophomore quarterback K.J. Costello in a win over Notre Dame last week, and I think he and Love help the Cardinal squeeze past the Trojans.


AAC Championship
#20 Memphis 44, #14 UCF 52   Line: UCF -7   O/U: 81
When: Saturday, Noon, ABC
Where: Orlando, FL
Playoff Stakes: Neither of these teams (even an unbeaten UCF) will get into the playoff, but the winner will most likely go to a New Year's Six bowl.

Coming off a thrilling win over in-state rival South Florida last week, UCF looks to stay unbeaten against 10-1 Memphis. These two teams play earlier in the season (September 30), with the Knights coming away with a 40-13 win. Considering it's the conference championship (and it's a rematch), I expect this game to be closer than the first one. Still, I think Central Florida has too much firepower, and will beat the Tigers again in a game that should be very high-scoring.


MAC Championship
Akron 27, Toledo 42   Line: TOLEDO -21   O/U: 58.5
When: Saturday, Noon, ESPN
Where: Detroit, MI
Playoff Stakes: There are absolutely no playoff stakes, but who doesn't like #MACtion?

I don't expect this contest to be extremely close. Akron come in 7-5, while Toledo enters at 10-2. When these two teams met on October 21, Toledo cruised to a 48-21 victory at home. This will be at a neutral site, which should help Akron a little, but the Rockets, who are led by talented senior quarterback Logan Woodside (3,451 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and three interceptions this season), are a lot better than the Zips.


C-USA Championship
North Texas 30, Florida Atlantic 52   Line: FAU -11.5   O/U: 73
When: Saturday, Noon, ESPN2
Where: Boca Raton, FL
Playoff Stakes: Again, absolutely no playoff stakes, but FAU is coached by noted tweeter Lane Kiffin.

This is another conference championship game that might not be all that close. While both the Mean Green and the Owls come in at 9-3, FAU beat North Texas 69-31 on October 21. Florida Atlantic is better than North Texas in total offense and total defense, and Lane Kiffin's team is 8-0 in conference (compared to 7-1 for the Mean Green). Plus, it's a practical home game for Florida Atlantic.


Big 12 Championship
#11 TCU 32, #3 Oklahoma 41   Line: OKLA -7   O/U: 63.5
When: Saturday, 12:30 PM, FOX
Where: Arlington, TX
Playoff Stakes: If Oklahoma wins, the Sooners are in the playoff. If TCU wins... complete chaos.


The first conference championship game this weekend with major playoff implications is the inaugural Big 12 Championship. Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma have won seven games in a row (including a 38-20 victory over TCU on November 11), and the Sooners control their own playoff destiny. TCU will show up ready to spoil Oklahoma's playoff hopes (and make the committee's job a whole lot more difficult), but I think Baker and the Sooners will outlast the Horned Frogs.


SEC Championship
#6 Georgia 28, #2 Auburn 34   Line: AUBURN -1.5   O/U: 48
When: Saturday, 4:00 PM, CBS
Where: Atlanta, GA
Playoff Stakes: This one's pretty simple. The winner probably gets into the playoff. The more interesting SEC storyline will be whether Alabama gets in.

The SEC Championship should be a fun one Saturday afternoon. Both teams will be playing for their playoff lives, and Georgia will be looking to avenge a 40-17 loss to Auburn on November 11. I think the rematch will be a lot closer, but I think the Tigers have more talent than the Bulldogs (as they showed last time the two teams played).


MWC Championship
#25 Fresno State 31, Boise State 38   Line: BOISE -9   O/U: 50
When: Saturday, 7:45 PM, ESPN
Where: Boise, ID
Playoff Stakes: There are no playoff stakes, but there is a blue field.

Out West, Fresno State and Boise State meet for the second week in a row. The Bulldogs took care of business against the Broncos last week, winning 28-17. Somehow, Boise State still has home-field advantage in the championship, and I think that (along with many other things) will help the Blue Field Broncos win this time.


Big Ten Championship
#8 Ohio State 40, #4 Wisconsin 32   Line: OHIOST -6   O/U: 51
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM, FOX
Where: Indianapolis, IN
Playoff Stakes: If Wisconsin wins, the Badgers are in the playoff. If Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes will need some help.

Wisconsin will be looking to polish off an undefeated season with a playoff appearance, while Ohio State will be looking to sneak back into the playoff. Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett had surgery on Sunday, but is expected to play Saturday night. He'll have to deal with the Badger defense, which ranks first in the country. Even if J.T. Barrett isn't able to play the whole game, I think the Buckeyes can hold off the Badgers, who haven't really been challenged outside of Camp Randall Stadium this season.


ACC Championship
#7 Miami 14, #1 Clemson 28   Line: CLEM -9   O/U: 46
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC
Where: Charlotte, NC
Playoff Stakes: If Clemson wins, the Tigers are in the playoff. If Miami wins, the Hurricanes may or may not be in the playoff. 

Two one-loss teams looking to get in to the playoff will face off Saturday night in Charlotte. Clemson has gone back to looking more like a defending National Champion after losing to Syracuse earlier in the season, while Miami suffered its first loss of the season last week against Pitt. The Tigers have looked like a stronger team than the Hurricanes all year, and I think it'll show Saturday night.


Stats and Information via ESPN.com
Lines and Over/Unders via SportsLine.com
Lines and Over/Unders are as of Friday Afternoon



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