Monday, April 25, 2016

2016 NFL Draft Primer

Hello again. Longtime, no see. With it being NFL Draft Week (it starts Thursday at 8 PM), I'm back for a little draft primer. I was going to do a mock draft again, but the NFL Draft is a crapshoot anyway (especially this year), so I'll just go over some key things I'll be looking out for come Thursday night. Note that all news and information regarding the draft is "reported" or "rumored", since teams obviously don't divulge that information. Also, my rankings of players and thoughts on players are devoid of any in-depth scouting and research, and are subject to (minor) change.

Goff and Wentz 1-2, Right?
Jared Goff and Carson Wentz (in that order) are expected to be the first two picks of the draft, with Jordan Raanan of NJ.com even reporting that he heard Goff is "99.9% the pick at number one". It would be a shock if the Rams and Eagles picked anyone but those two quarterbacks at one and two, since they traded so much to move up to those spots.

After That, it's Anyone's Guess
Although the first two picks in the draft are presumably clear at this point, the rest are far from it. Starting with San Diego at #3, there could be some trades and surprise picks. The Chargers have gauged interest for the third pick, but reports say talks are quiet. Most expect the Bolts to take either Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil, or Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey (although don't rule out Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, whom the Chargers reportedly have strong interest in). After them is the Cowboys, who are expected (according to rumors and mock drafts) to take one of two Ohio State players - pass-rusher Joey Bosa or running back Ezekiel Elliott. Jacksonville, who picks at five, is expected to take a defensive player, possibly Bosa or UCLA linebacker Myles Jack. Speaking of Jack...

Myles Jack & Jaylon Smith: Top-5 Talents, Not Top-5 Medicals
Jack and Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith are two of the most explosive athletes in this draft class, and have the talent and ability to both be among the top players in the class. The problem is, both players have injury problems. Smith tore his left ACL and MCL in the Fiesta Bowl and is expected to sit out this coming season. That may drop him into the second round (or later). Jack, thought by many to be the most athletic player in the draft (he played running back and linebacker at UCLA), hurt his knee early last season (causing him to go pro). There have been reports that some teams are concerned with his medicals and that he may have a problem with his knee. However, it only takes one team to feel confident about him, and he will probably still go in the top half of the first round.

Trade Frenzy
The first two picks in this year's draft have already been traded, and I expect many more to be traded on Thursday night. The trades will most likely include Cleveland (they already traded down to #8, but may trade down again for even more picks, or trade up from #32 for a quarterback), Tennessee (they have already traded down to #15, but they reportedly want to trade back into the top 10), Miami (they are rumored to want Ezekiel Elliott, but at #13, may have to trade up to get him), and Denver (they are in the market for a quarterback, and may trade up from #31 to make sure they get a quarterback they feel strongly about before someone else does).

Stock Market
As we approach the draft, many players are seeing their stock fluctuate. Among those who seem to be on the rise are DeForest Buckner, Clemson safety T.J. Green, and Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch. Among those who seem to be trending downward are Joey Bosa, Myles Jack, and Clemson corner Mackensie Alexander.

Other News & Notes
  • In his press conference last week, Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson hinted that Jared Goff and Carson Wentz may not be the top two quarterbacks on his draft board (which may partly explain why Cleveland traded out of the top spot). I think Jackson's top two quarterbacks might be Goff and Paxton Lynch, and VP of Football Operation Sashi Brown may try to trade back from #8 or up from #32 to grab Hue's guy.
  • By the way, I would probably say my top two quarterbacks in this class are Wentz and Goff, in that order, but I really have no idea. I could see some of the second and third-tier quarterbacks (Lynch, Michigan State's Connor Cook, Penn State's Christian Hackenberg, Ohio State's Cardale Jones, Mississipi State's Dak Prescott, and N.C. State's Jacoby Brissett) being just as good as, or even better than, the top two.
  • San Francisco and Philadelphia both have disgruntled quarterbacks who want out (Collin Kaepernick and Sam Bradford, respectively), but neither team seems to be close to getting rid of their unhappy incumbent. Both teams are expected to draft quarterbacks relatively high, especially the Eagles, who are expected to take one with the second overall pick, but Philly had planned to have that quarterback (most likely Carson Wentz) sit behind Bradford his first year. Now, I'm not so sure. 

Best Players
1. Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey
2. Ole Miss T Laremy Tunsil
3. UCLA LB Myles Jack
4. Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
5. Oho State DE Joey Bosa
Deepest Positions
1. Defensive Line
2. Offensive Line
3. Linebacker
Riskiest (Early) Picks
1. Ole Miss DE Robert Nkemdiche
2. Eastern Kentucky DE Noah Spence
3. Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
Sleepers
1. Ohio State LB Darron Lee
2. Ohio State WR Michael Thomas
3. Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins