GSB 2016 March Madness Primer

It's that time of year again! Arguably the greatest sporting craze is upon us: March Madness. The play-in games (or the "First Four", as they are called) have already started, and the First Round (yes, they changed the Round of 64 back to the "First Round") starts Thursday. Here is a little primer to help you fill out your bracket (Note: I am not responsible if/when your you lose your bracket pool).
First, let's rehash some key factors I told people to remember when filling out brackets in last year's March Madness Preview:

• #1 Seeds NEVER Lose in the Round of 64

 No number one seed has lost a Round of 64 game in the NCAA Tournament. They are 120-0 against the sixteen seeds.

Number one seeds are now 124-0 against 16 seeds, and while I don't envision one losing this year, it may be the year it finally happens (keep an eye on Florida Gulf Coast).

• At Least One 12 Will Beat a 5, at Least One 11 Will Beat a 6, and There Will Probably be a 13 That Beats a 4

4, 5, and 6 seeds are only a combined 250-110 all-time in the Round of 64. In fact, the last time there weren't at least two 11, 12, or 13 seed upsets in the Round of 64 was 2000 (when there was only one). 12 seeds are probably the best bets, as three made it to the first weekend each of the past two years.

Right after I tell people to pick at least one 12 seed, no 12 seeds win. However, there were two 14 seeds and two 11 seed upsets last year, and there will probably be at least that many this year (especially look hard at the 11 seeds). 

• There Will Be One Upset Nobody Saw Coming

Last year it was three seed Duke losing to 14 seed Mercer. The year before it was 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast making it to the Sweet 16 (and 14 seed Harvard making it to the Round of 32). And the year before that it was 2 seeds Duke and Missouri getting upset by 15 seeds. Whether it's a 14 vs. a 3 or a 15 vs. a 2, there will most likely be at least one upset almost nobody saw coming.

Last year continued this trend, as 14 seeds Georgia State and UAB upset Baylor and Iowa State, respectively. There will probably be another one (or more) this year, but I don't know who it will involve (hence the phrase "upset nobody saw coming"). If I were to venture a guess of where a "shocking" (14, 15, or 16 seed) upset might be this year, I would look at 14 seed Green Bay (vs. Baylor) and 15 seed Weber State (vs. Xavier).

• Strong Defense and Stellar Guard Play Win Championships

When picking a national champion, look for a good defensive team with a playmaking guard. Let's look at the last five champs: In 2010, champion Duke ranked 28th in scoring defense (and 2nd in three-point defense) and had junior guard Nolan Smith, who averaged 17.4 points per game. In 2011, champion UConn was only 80th in scoring defense but was 11th in opponent field goal percentage, and they had playmaking guard Kemba Walker, who was 5th in the nation in points per game (23.5) and was the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player. In 2012, champion Kentucky ranked 25th in scoring defense (and 1st in opponent field goal percentage) and had two guards who each averaged over ten points per game (Doron Lamb with 13.7 and Marquis Teague with 10.3). In 2013, champion Louisville was 21st in scoring defense and had junior guard Russ Smith (18.7 points per game) and senior guard Peyton Siva (10). And last year, champion UConn ranked 31st in scoring defense and had electric guard Shabazz Napier (18 points per game). The old adage is true: Defense (and a playmaking guard or two) wins championships.

Last year's champion, Duke, didn't have an outstanding defense or guard, but did defend well against three-pointers and have a solid veteran guard in Quinn Cook. Continue to look for a strong defensive team (although offense helps too) with a good guard (or guards) to win the chammpionship (and yes, I would count Denzel Valentine as a guard).

• Teams Who Enter the Tourney Hot Usually Stay Hot

Always go with the hot hand. That's a good tip about many things, including filling out NCAA Tournament brackets. Last year, UConn wasn't necessarily hot going into the Big Dance, but they did make a run in the Big East Tournament, falling to Louisville in the finals. Going into the 2013 NCAA Tournament, Louisville was on a 10-game winning streak (winning each game by at least five), Kentucky had won 24 in a row in 2012 before losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Championship, and 2011 UConn was especially hot, making a surprise run in the Big East Tournament and winning it after struggling at the end of the regular season.

Momentum is helpful. That can help you decide close matchups in the tournament (such as 7-10 or 8-9 games). However, it's not absolutely everything (yes, Austin Peay is on a roll right now; no, they won't continue that roll)..

• 3's Are Your Best Friend... And Your Worst Enemy

Relying heavily on the three-point shot is a dangerous proposition. On one hand, you can beat just about anybody on any given night if the threes are falling. On the other hand, if they aren't falling, you can lose to just about anybody. So it's probably smart to pick a three-point heavy team to pull an upset in the first couple of rounds, but not to win it all. I learned this the hard way last year, when I picked Doug McDermott and three-happy Creighton (I wasn't thinking clearly; I was hypnotized by the greatness that was McDermott). Think about it this way: Attractiveness can get you through a one night stand, but looks alone won't make a relationship last. The same idea applies to threes. You can survive one night against anyone if you knock down the three, but you'll need a lot more than the three to win a championship.

This is always true, and this year, many tourney teams launch a lot of threes. Threes (as long as they're falling) win ball games (along with defense, rebounding, free throws...)

I've identified my favorite (best team), sleeper (under-the-radar team), "Upset Alert" (a big upset to watch for), and pick to win in each region.

South Region

Favorite: #1 Kansas
The Jayhawks are the number one overall seed in the tournament. They won both the regular season and tournament titles in the Big 12 (arguably the best conference in the nation), haven't lost since January, and have tons of talent, led by senior forward Perry Ellis (16.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG), junior guard Frank Mason III (13.1 PPG, 4.7 APG), and junior guard Wayne Seldon Jr. (13.3 PPG). They are strong in several different statistical categories, and are lethal from deep (They are 42.6 % on three-pointers, and all of their starters can shoot from beyond the arc).

Sleeper: #9 Connecticut
The Huskies are riding high off a American Conference Tournament run that included a wild four overtime win over Cincinnati in the quarterfinals and culminated in a conference championship. This team isn't quite as good as the 2014 National Championship team, but still has some similarities, including a surprise conference tournament run, a low seed (the 2014 team was a seven seed), and talented guards. This year's team is led by 6'7" sophomore Daniel Hamilton (12.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG), along with junior guard Rodney Purvis (12.5 PPG) and senior guard Sterling Gibbs (12 PPG), both transfers, and senior forward Shonn Miller (12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG). Unlike that 2014 team, this team is better on defense (63.2 points allowed per game, tied for 15th in the country).

Upset Alert: #13 Hawaii vs. #4 California
The Cal Bears may have multiple NBA prospects in senior guard Tyrone Wallace (15.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG), freshman forward Jaylen Brown (15 PPG, 5.5 RPG), freshman forward Ivan Rabb (12.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG), and junior guard Jabari Bird (10.4 PPG), but the Rainbow Warriors, who won the Big West this year over UC-Irvine (and 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye), a team that almost upset Louisville as a 13 seed last year, has played well against some very good teams, including Oklahoma (lost by three), Texas Tech (lost by eight), and Northern Iowa (Won by 14). They are a strong defensive team (66.5 point allowed per game, 50th in the nation) piloted by junior forward Stefan Jankovic (15.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG), a Missouri transfer who was Big West Player of the Year, and senior guard Roderick Bobbitt (13.3 PPG, 5.5 APG), who contributes in numerous areas.

Elite Eight Pick: #9 Connecticut
Kansas is the overwhelming favorite in this region, but I'm going outside of the box with the dangerous Huskies. Coach Kevin Ollie has been in a similar situation to this before, when he led an under-the-radar seven seed on a tournament run and National Championship. Remember, the NCAA Tournament isn't necessarily about the best teams, but the hottest teams. 


West Region

Favorite: #2 Oklahoma
The Sooners, who were once the number one team in the nation (and almost beat number one overall seed Kansas), took some hits late in Big 12 play and fell to a number two seed. But this team is still one of the best teams in the country (and possibly better than one seed Oregon), thanks in large part to arguably the best player in the country (it's either him, Denzel Valentine, or maybe Tyler Ulis) in senior guard Buddy Hield (25 PPG, 5.6 RPG). Other large contributors include senior forward Ryan Spangler (10.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG), senior guard Isaiah Cousins (13 PPG), and junior guard Jordan Woodard (12.6 PPG). They are, like Kansas, lethal from three-point range, hitting 42.6% of there shots from outside.

Sleeper: #11 Northern Iowa
The Panthers won the Missouri Valley Conference title on a buzzer-beater by star senior guard (and Tennessee transfer) Wes Washpun (14.3 PPG, 5.2 APG), and will try to cause some havoc in the NCAA Tournament, which they have done in the past. They also have junior guard Jeremy Morgan (10.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG), who contributes to a defense ranked 11th in the nation in points allowed per game (62.9). They also boast wins over the likes of North Carolina, Iowa State, and Wichita State this season.

Upset Alert: #12 Yale vs. #5 Baylor
If you're looking for a 12-5 upset this year, this may be the place to look. The Bulldogs are in the tournament for the first time in 54 years, and they are capable of doing what fellow Ivy League school Harvard did a couple of years ago in the NCAA Tournament. The strong rebounding dogs are paced by senior forward Justin Sears (15.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and sophomore guard Makai Mason (15.8 PPG). They may have trouble with Baylor's size (especially 6'8", 275-pound forward Rico Gathers, who's playing football next year) and neon uniforms, but they are a team to watch out for.

Elite Eight Pick: #2 Oklahoma
Buddy Hield. He alone is reason enough for the Sooners to win this region, but they also have an all-around elite team and are a National title contender. They're dangerous offense and elite three-point shooting will make them hard to beat, even in a region with Duke, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, and Oregon.


East Region

Favorite: #1 North Carolina
The Tar Heels, per usual, have lots of talent, including senior forward Brice Johnson (16.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) and senior guard Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG). They feature four players who average at least 12 points again, and two more who average over nine. While UNC struggles outside (31.4% from three), they are money inside (52.3% from two). They are also among the best in the nation in points, assists, and rebounds.

Sleeper: #10 Pittsburgh
This is the most wide-open region in the bracket, with talented teams like Indiana, Kentucky, and Notre Dame who could lose first round or make it to the Final Four. It also has (in my opinion) the weakest two seed (Xavier), which is a good team but isn't on the level of Oklahoma or Michigan State. Jamie Dixon's Panthers are a dangerous team that has beaten Duke, Notre Dame, and Gonzaga. They have talented players in junior forward Michael Young (16 PPG, 7 RPG), Junior forward Jamel Artis (14.4 PPG), and senior guard James Robinson (10.3 PPG, 5.1 APG). 

Upset Alert: #12 Chattanooga vs. #5 Indiana
If the Hoosiers are hitting shots, they are hard to beat. But if they don't have going well offensively, a strong mid-major like Chattanooga can knock them off. IU isn't a great defensive team (68.9 points allowed per game, 99th in the nation), and they are coming off a shocking loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. The Mocs of Chattanooga have beaten Georgia, Illinois, and Dayton, and are led by junior forward Tre' McLean (12.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG).

Elite Eight Pick: #3 West Virginia
"Press Virginia" is more than just the press this year. The improved offense is led by junior forward Devin Williams (13.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG) and senior guard Jaysean Paige (13.9 PPG), and the havoc-wreaking defense is among the best in the country, as well as their offensive rebounding (15.9 per game, second in the nation). 

Midwest Region

Favorite: #2 Michigan State
The Spartans are rolling into the tournament off a Big Ten Tournament championship, and they probably should have been a number one seed. They are (in my opinion) one of the two best teams in the country right now (along with Kansas). They have arguably the best player in the country (again, either Buddy Hield, him, or possibly Tyler Ulis) and probably the most versatile player in the country in Denzel Valentine (19.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.6 APG). They also have much-improved senior forward Matt Costello (10.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and senior guard Bryn Forbes (14.4 PPG), who is deadly from three (48.4%). MSU as a is the best three-point shooting team in the nation (43.5%).

Sleeper: #9 Butler
You can never count out Butler, even in the post-Brad Stevens era. The Bulldogs didn't have the best season, but they do have the ability to make a tournament run. They are a very good three-point shooting team (38.7% from deep), paced by senior guard Kellen Dunham (16.3 PPG), sophomore forward Kelan Martin (16.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG), and senior forward Roosevelt Jones (14 PPG, 6.6 RPG).

Upset Alert: #13 Iona vs. #4 Iowa State
Iona is a fast-paced, high-octane three-point shooting team (320 total threes made, 12th in the nation) with one of the best mid-major players in the country in senior guard A.J. English (22.4 PPG, 5 RPG, 6.2 APG). They have also won their last eight games. That combination could spell a potential upset. They play Iowa State, a team that, while very talented, has scuffled recently, and was upset as a three seed last year by 14 seed UAB.

Elite Eight Pick: #2 Michigan State
Tom Izzo in March. That's really all that needs to be said. Oh, and Denzel Valentine. And best three-point shooting team in the nation. Yeah, that should about do it.


Final Four Picks:

Oklahoma over Connecticut

This is where UConn's magical run ends. I'm crazy enough to have UConn in the Final Four, but I'm not quite crazy enough to have them in the National Championship (this team's not quite as good as the National Champions two years ago), especially against a talented and experienced Oklahoma team.

Michigan State over West Virginia

West Virginia is a great, physical team that has a shot at winning it all, but Denzel Valentine won't let the Spartans lose. He, along with Michigan State's other talented seniors (Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello), will lead Tom Izzo's team to the National Championship.

National Championship Pick:

Michigan State Spartans over Oklahoma Sooners

This seems like a fitting way to end a season that has seen many more good senior-laden teams than usual (as opposed to the one-and-done powerhouses). The two best players in the country (Buddy Hield and Denzel Valentine) playing their final collegiate games against each other. Both of these teams have shown that they are National title contenders and have the pieces to win one. I think Michigan State, with more depth and experience (and a better overall teams), takes the title.