Here are some trends I found:
- #1 Seeds NEVER Lose in the Round of 64
- At Least One 12 Will Beat a 5, at Least One 11 Will Beat a 6, and There Will Probably be a 13 That Beats a 4
- There Will Be One Upset Nobody Saw Coming
- Strong Defense and Stellar Guard Play Win Championships
- Teams Who Enter the Tourney Hot Usually Stay Hot
- 3's Are Your Best Friend... And Your Worst Enemy
Midwest Region
Players To Watch:
Players To Watch:
- Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky - You could choose any number of Kentucky players to watch, but the 7'0" junior is a leader on this team and the defensive anchor, averaging 1.6 blocks per game (and 6.4 rebounds per game) on one of the top defensive teams in the nation.
- Jerian Grant, Notre Dame - The senior guard, who was suspended for part of last season due to an academic scandal, has led the electrifying Fighting Irish offense this year. He averaged 16.8 points per game and was seventh in the nation in assists per game (6.6).
- Melo Trimble, Maryland - The sensational freshman guard is part of a trio of talented perimeter players for the Terps that consists of him, senior guard Dez Wells (15.4 ppg), and junior forward Jake Layman (12.8 ppg). Trimble averaged 16.3 points per game during the regular season.
- Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State - The junior guard is part of a backcourt that, like Maryland's, is talented, and features him, Ron Baker (15 ppg), and Tekele Cotton (9.6 ppg). Van Vleet averaged 12.7 points per game and was among the best in the country when it came to assists (5.8 per game).
- A.J. Hammons, Purdue - The 7'0" junior helped the Boilermakers rebound from a rough start and is a weapon on both ends of the court, averaging 11.8 points per game and 2.9 blocks per game (as well as 6.5 rebounds per game).
- #3 Notre Dame - The offensively efficient (51% from the field) Fighting Irish are hot, knocking off Duke and North Carolina to win the ACC Tournament last weekend.
- #5 West Virginia - The Mountaineers' full court press has led to them having a strong defense that led the country in steals per game (10.9). Offensively, they still offensive rebound well and have a star in senior guard Juwan Staten (14.5 ppg) when he is healthy (he has missed the last four games).
- #11 Texas - Texas has struggled this season, and Rick Barnes' team has blown multiple games, but they have the talent to beat anyone in the region, Kentucky included. They have a star point guard in Isaiah Taylor (13 ppg, 4.6 apg) and a potential lottery pick up front in Myles Turner (10.4 ppg), and they lead the nation in blocks.
- #13 Valparaiso vs. #4 Maryland - Maryland is overrated, and the stats show that. They have won many very close games that could have gone either way. They are good, with three playmakers who could take over a game at any time, but they have not looked very impressive. On the other side, Valpo is a tough, balanced team, and has a star of its own in 6'9" Alec Peters (16.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg), who can score from anywhere.
- #12 Buffalo vs. #5 West Virginia - This is a trendy upset pick among analysts, and for good reason. Although this is Buffalo's first NCAA Tournament appearance, they are led by former Duke star Bobby Hurley, they led Kentucky earlier this year at half time (they ultimately lost by 19) and lost by 12 to Wisconsin, and they have power forward Justin Moss, who averages 17.7 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game.
West Region
Players To Watch:
East Region
Players To Watch:
South Region
Players To Watch:
"Most Likely" Upset Picks (These are big upsets that probably won't happen, but if I had to choose a 16, 15, and 14 seed to pull an upset, these are the ones I'd choose)
Most Likely 16 vs. 1 Upset:
- Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin - The odds-on favorite to win the Wooden Award, the 7'0" Kaminsky can defend, rebound (8 per game), and score from anywhere (18.2 ppg). He is the leader on a disciplined and dangerous Badger team.
- Stanley Johnson, Arizona - The freshman forward is a big reason the Wildcats are one of the most feared teams in the country, as he is big, strong, and talented (14.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg).
- Joseph Young, Oregon - The Pac-12 Player of the Year is a dangerous scorer, and has played especially well of late, including a three in the final seconds to beat Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinal. Young averaged 20.2 points per game.
- D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State - Russell a potential top-five pick in the NBA Draft, is one of the most skilled players in college basketball. He has a sweet shooting stroke (19.3 ppg), excellent court vision (5.1 apg), and can rebound too (5.6 rpg). He is the main reason Ohio State could possibly make a tournament run.
- R.J. Hunter, Georgia State - The coach's son, R.J. is a lethal three-point shooter (19.8 ppg), and the combination of him, former Kentucky player Ryan Harrow (18.7 ppg), and former Louisville player Kevin Ware (18 points in the Sun Belt Tournament Championship) are why the Panthers could be a threat to upset.
- #3 Baylor - The physical Bears have the best rebounder in the country (Rico Gathers, 11.6 rpg) and can hit the three (39%) with guys such as Taurean Prince (13.8 ppg) and Kenny Chery (11.4 ppg).
- #4 North Carolina - UNC played very well in the ACC Tournament, beating Virginia in the semifinal before falling to Notre Dame in the championship. The Heels, led by Marcus Paige (13.9 ppg, 4.6 apg), have the talent to make a run.
- #10 Ohio State - Much of Ohio State's hopes hang on D'Angelo Russell, but they also need the supporting pieces to step up. If Russell catches fire, seniors Shannon Scott and Sam Thompson play to their potential, and Marc Loving rediscovers his scoring touch, the Buckeyes could make a run.
- #13 Harvard vs. #4 North Carolina - On the surface, this looks like an easy win for North Carolina. They beat a team in the ACC semifinal (Virginia) that Harvard lost to by 49 points. However, Harvard has been here before (They beat Cincinnati as a 12 seed last year and New Mexico as a 14 seed the year before) and was ranked at the beginning of the season.
- #12 Wofford vs. #5 Arkansas - Arkansas may have SEC Player of the Year and future pro Bobby Portis (17.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg), but they haven't beaten anybody amazing (although they lost to Kentucky twice), and Wofford, led by senior Karl Cochran (14.6 ppg), has played some tough games, including a one-point win at N.C. State.
East Region
Players To Watch:
- Buddy Hield, Oklahoma - Buddy has captained a Sooner team that is a Final Four threat, and has led them to many big wins thanks to his offensive prowess (17.5 ppg).
- Montrezl Harrrell, Louisville - Harrell is a beast, using his size and physicality to bully peopl down low, both on the offensive end (15.7 ppg) and defensive end (9.5 rpg).
- Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa - Northern Iowa's breakout this year is largely thanks to the breakout of this "Poor Man's Frank Kaminsky" (15.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), who led them to the Missouri Valley Conference title over Wichita State.
- Kris Dunn, Providence - The exciting Dunn (15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg) and backcourt mate LaDontae Henton (19.7 ppg) form one of the best tandems in college basketball, and lead a dangerous team that beat Notre Dame earlier this season.
- Mamadou Ndiaye, UC Irvine - Pronounced Mom-uh-do N-die, he is in here mostly because he is 7'6". But he is also productive (10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg) when healthy (he missed a chunk of this season), anchoring one of the best defenses in the country and literally towering over opponents.
- #3 Oklahoma - Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the country, an all-around team that has beaten Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, and West Virginia, and has the likes of Buddy Hield, TaShawn Thomas, and Ryan Spangler.
- #7 Michigan State - Tom Izzo's Michigan State teams always seem to play well in the postseason, no matter how mediocre they are during the regular season, and this year looks no different. Sparty played very well in the Big Ten Tournament, taking Wisconsin to overtime in the final, and they have veteran experience.
- #8 N.C. State - The Wolfpack are a dangerous eight seed. They've beaten North Carolina, Duke, and Louisville, and their led by guards "Cat" Barber (12.1 ppg), Trevor Lacey (15.8 ppg), and Ralston Turner (13.2 ppg). If they play to the level they are capable of, they can make a run.
- #13 UC Irvine vs. #4 Louisville - This is a good matchup for the Anteaters. Louisville is a poor three-point shooting team, and UC Irvine's zone defense, featuring a 7'6" center, that is very difficult to drive against. Montrezl Harrell might have some trouble with Mamadou Ndiaye, senior Will Davis II (12.9 ppg, 7 rpg) can be a playmaker, and the Anteaters can shoot the three too.
- #12 Wyoming vs. #5 Northern Iowa - Northern Iowa is a talented team, but critics will argue that they played a relatively weak schedule, and Wyoming, a bid-stealer out of the Mountain West, has talent, including Josh Adams (13.1 ppg) and Larry Nance Jr. (16.1 ppg).
South Region
Players To Watch:
- Jahlil Okafor, Duke - The fabulous freshman is even better than Duke's fab freshman last year (Jabari Parker) and is projected to go #1 in the NBA Draft. He is a force down low (17.7 ppg).
- Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga - The former Kentucky player from Portland is a major reason why (along with the play of teammate Kevin Pangos and others) the Zags are a two seed and a Final Four threat. He averaged 16.7 ppg (and 6 rpg).
- Delon Wright, Utah - Delon, who's older brother Dorell plays in the NBA, is a do-it-all senior point guard for the surprising Utes. He is among the best all-around players in the country (14.9 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.9 rpg).
- D'Angelo Harrison, St. John's - Another great freshman named D'Angelo, Harrison (17.5 ppg) has been an essential part of bringing St. John's to prominence.
- Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington - Harvey, who got zero Division 1 offers out of high school, is the nation's leading scorer (22.9 ppg) and a key part of a dangerous offensive team.
- #3 Iowa State - The Cyclones are a very impressive team that won a very competitive Big 12 Tournament. They are propelled by talented point guard Monte Morris (11.8 ppg) and talented forward Georges Niang (15.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg).
- #5 Utah - Utah is a very balanced team, and one of the best defensive teams in the country. Those are two key ingredients to a Final Four team, along with a playmaking guard (Delon Wright).
- #10 Davidson - Davidson has made a Cinderella run before (with some kid named Steph Curry), and they have the firepower to do it again (terrific three-point shooting team). They also potentially have a somewhat easy path, with an overseeded Iowa team and a beatable Gonzaga team.
- #13 Eastern Washington vs. #4 Georgetown - Tyler Harvey leads an excellent three-point shooting team that beat Indiana earlier this season, and Georgetown does not have a good recent track record in the NCAA Tournament.
- #12 Stephen F. Austin vs. #5 Utah - This is a popular upset pick after the Lumberjacks upset VCU last year. They are a great offensive team and have tested themselves. Plus, they have more tournament experience than five seed Utah.
"Most Likely" Upset Picks (These are big upsets that probably won't happen, but if I had to choose a 16, 15, and 14 seed to pull an upset, these are the ones I'd choose)
Most Likely 16 vs. 1 Upset:
- Lafayette vs. Villanova - Villanova seems like the most vulnerable of the one seeds, since they don't play the level of competition the other one seeds play. This isn't to say Nova is not a great team, but they are probably the worst of the one seeds (regardless of the sterling 32-2 record). The Leopards of Lafayette went on an absolute tear of three-pointers to win the Patriot League, and a team that shoots threes like that always has at least a sliver of a chance.
- Belmont vs. Virginia - Staying in the East Region, this is an upset that isn't nearly as unfathomable as Lafayette over Villanova (remember, two 15 seeds pulled off upsets in 2012 and another 15 seed won two games in 2013). Virginia star Justin Anderson came back from an appendectomy in the ACC Tournament but played poorly, not scoring at all. One could argue for Texas Southern over Arizona (they beat Michigan State and Kansas State during the regular season) or North Dakota State over Gonzaga (they won a tournament game last year, and Gonzaga is the weakest two seed), Belmont can shoot the three as well as just about any team in the country, which could give the country's best defense a challenge.
- Georgia State vs. Baylor - This is the most likely of these three upsets to happen, since a 14 beat a three just last year (Mercer over Duke). Georgia State is led by two players who have played on national powerhouses (Kentucky transfer Ryan Harrow and Louisville transfer Kevin Ware) and the coach's son (R.J. Hunter), and they are one of the best shooting teams in the country.
"Coin Flip" Teams (These are teams that could easily go to Indianapolis or go home early)
- Maryland - The Terps have a trio of very talented players, and have looked like one of the best teams in the country at times. But they have also barely won some games, and are a bit overrated. Still, if one or two of there playmakers catch fire, they could make a run.
- Notre Dame - Notre Dame is an offensive powerhouse led by one of the best players in the country, and they beat Duke and North Carolina on the way to an ACC Tournament title. But they are a below-average defensive team and don't have a history of deep NCAA Tournament runs.
- Texas - The Longhorns barely made the tournament, but they are better than the numbers suggest. They are very talented, and have beaten Baylor and West Virginia, but inconsistency and late game blunders have riddled this team.
- North Carolina - The Tar Heels are kind of like Texas, except without the blown games. They are talented but somewhat inconsistent. They beat Virginia and Louisville, but lost to Iowa and N.C. State. They have some really good players (Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson), but no superstar.
- Providence - The Friars have one of the most talented backcourts in the country and have beaten Notre Dame, but they don't shoot threes particularly well and were ousted early in last year's tournament. They have a potentially dangerous 6-11 matchup in Columbus against Dayton (if they beat Boise State).
- Virginia - Virginia, with their suffocating defense, is one of the best teams in America. However, there are questions about Justin Anderson's health, and if he isn't productive, they'll have to lean on Malcolm Brogdon (13.9 ppg) offensively, which could lead to an early exit.
- Utah - The Utes are very talented, and rank high both offensively and defensively. But they have lost four of their last seven, don't have NCAA Tournament experience, and face a dangerous upset-minded team in Stephen F. Austin.
- Gonzaga - The Zags have more talent than they have had in a while, which is why this team might be different from the ones who were called overrated and didn't do much to silence the haters. There are still the usual questions surrounding this team (strength of schedule and reputation), but nobody can deny that this is a very good team.
My Final Four Picks:
I picked Wisconsin over Kentucky and Utah over Oklahoma (I went back and forth on that one). I have Wisconsin as my National Champion. They are disciplined, experienced, efficient, and talented. They rarely turn the ball over and have the best player in the country. Here is my bracket.
Note: I am not a psychic, or even that good at picking NCAA Tournament games (I picked Creighton last year, after all). I went back and forth on more than a few matchups, and my bracket is still subject to change.