It's a season of change. Not just in the weather and leaves, but in the NFL as well. Through five weeks, there has been a coaching change (Oakland), multiple starting quarterback changes due to injury or poor play (Oakland, Jets, Minnesota, Arizona, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville), and even more starting running back changes (Oakland, San Diego, Cleveland, Miami, Minnesota, Green Bay, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Giants starting this week). But like the changing of seasons, while people do dread the change and don't want it to happen, there are many good things about it. In the case of position changes, it gives rookies or career backups chances to show what they can do, and some take the opportunity and run with it (no pun intended).
Indianapolis Colts (3-2) @ Houston Texans (3-2)-Thurs. 8:25, CBS/NFL Network
Matchup To Watch: Colts QB Andrew Luck vs. Texans Pass Rush
Andrew Luck has continued to show Colts fans why they shouldn't miss Peyton Manning one bit. Over his last three games, Luck has completed 71.3% of his passes while throwing for nine touchdowns and three interceptions. The always dangerous Texan pass rush, led by superhuman J.J. Watt, was outplayed by Tony Romo last week. Romo threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns, including one where he spun and evaded Watt.
Winner: Luck (25-44, 370 yards, 3 TD, INT)
Start 'em: Colts WR T.Y. Hilton
Hilton has been well-targeted in every game this season, including last week, when he caught nine passes for 90 yards. The Texans aren't great against opposing wide receivers, and Luck will continue to look for Hilton as his second option behind Reggie Wayne.
Stats: 9 catches, 223 yards,
Sit 'em: Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins has had a breakout season so far, but he didn't find the endzone last week, catching six passes for 63 yards, and the Colts are pretty stingy so far this season against the pass. Plus, with the below-average Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and Arian Foster and the run game flourishing, Hopkins might not see a big game this week.
Stats: 1 catch, 12 yards
Pick 'em up:
Why The Colts Will Win:
Andrew Luck is enough reason why they will win. He shines in the spotlight as well (2-0 in Thursday night games). The Colts are really clicking offensively right now. They lead the league in passing offense and are going up against the 11th-worst pass defense. They are also on a three game winning streak. In fact, their only two losses were by seven to the 3-1 Broncos and by three to the 4-1 Eagles. This is a very good team.
Why The Texans Will Win:
The Texans are 2-0 at home this year, while going 1-2 on the road. They almost beat the surging Cowboys last week, but lost in overtime. Arian Foster is running as well as ever. In the three games he's been healthy and gotten the majority of the workload this year, he's totaled 103, 138, and 157 rushing yards. He's also running against the NFL's seventh-worst rush defense.
Pick: Colts 27, Texans 20
Result: Colts 33, Texans 28 (Correct)
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Browns RB Ben Tate
Le'Veon Bell ran all over the Browns in Pittsburgh's Week 1 win over Cleveland. He had 21 carries for 109 yards and a touchdown. He has continued to run well. Ben Tate was running well before he got injured early in the Week 1 contest. His backups played well in his absence, but he came back last week and showed why he's Cleveland's starter, running for 123 yards on 22 carries in a comeback win over the Titans.
Start 'em: Browns RB Ben Tate
Tate shined in his first game back from injury last week, and he was running well against the Steelers last time before he was injured. He and his backups racked up 173 yards in their first game against Pittsburgh. Now that he's clearly the lead back again, he'll get lots of chances to have another productive day.
Sit 'em: Any Receiver Other Than Antonio Brown
Brown should be started in all leagues, especially in this favorable matchup. But beyond that, there aren't many great fantasy receiving options in this game. Markus Wheaton only had one catch last week and has yet to find the endzone. On the other sideline, Brian Hoyer likes to spread the ball around, which isn't good for Cleveland's already dire fantasy receiver situation. Travis Benjamin's fantasy production has been tied to touchdowns, and after catching seven, six, and eight passes the first three games, Andrew Hawkins only had three catches last week (although he's still being targeted often, and is a good player to pick up in PPR leagues).
Pick 'em up: Browns QB Brian Hoyer (Owned in 3.7% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues)
Hoyer is better in real life than in fantasy, but he has also played solidly in fantasy this year, rising into the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks. He doesn't have a ton of upside or talented receivers, but he is solid and has produced with what he has. He's a decent start in two-quarterback leagues and for those looking for a bye week replacement.
Why The Steelers Will Win:
The Steelers beat the Browns in Week 1, and Ben Roethlisberger has only lost once to Cleveland. They're in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense, and they're facing a struggling defense (31st in the NFL in total defense) without corner Joe Haden and defensive tackle Phil Taylor.
Why The Browns Will Win:
The Browns came back and almost beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 1. This week they're at home. They have been within three points in all four games they've played. Brian Hoyer, Ben Tate, and the rest of the offense are playing well and have the ability to comeback from big deficits.
Pick: Browns 30, Steelers 27
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Jaguars QB Blake Bortles vs. Titans QB Charlie Whitehurst
Both of these quarterbacks were not expected to play this year. Whitehurst is a journeyman who was supposed to serve as Jake Locker's backup. Blake Bortles is a rookie who was going to redshirt for a season after being drafted third overall. Things changed. Locker is questionable with a thumb injury after leaving last week's loss to the Browns in which they blew a 25-point lead. Starter Chad Henne was so bad for the Jaguars that they went to Bortles earlier than planned (halftime against the Colts). Whitehurst is what he is (so far this season he has thrown for 371 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick), Bortles has shown some promise (even though he's thrown six interceptions, he's also thrown for 668 yards and three touchdowns and has a 67% completion rate).
Start 'em: Titans WR Kendall Wright
Wright, who always sees targets even with the questionability at quarterback, had a big game last week against Cleveland, catching six passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. He's a very good start in PPR leagues because of the amount of targets, and he's facing a Jaguars defense that gives up 309 passing yards per game.
Sit 'em: Titans RB Bishop Sankey
It's not that the rookie Sankey hasn't played well in the opportunities he's gotten, it's just that he hasn't gotten many opportunities. He only has one game with double-digit carries, and Shonn Greene is still the lead back. Even against a porous Jaguars defense, Sankey is not a player to start.
Pick 'em up: Titans D/ST (13.9%)
For those streaming defenses, whoever is playing the lowly Jaguars is always a good option. Jacksonville averages 272 total yards and 13.4 points a game. The Titans don't have a great defense, but they aren't bad either.
Why The Jaguars Will Win:
Blake Bortles has shown flashes of good play and is a huge upgrade over Chad Henne. They stuck with Pittsburgh for the most part in a 9-17 loss to the Steelers last week. They might be getting rookie wide receiver Marqise Lee back after a three-game absence and might be facing a journeyman backup quarterback.
Why The Titans Will Win:
They are playing the Jaguars, the worst team in the NFL. They were up big on Cleveland last week before blowing the lead. The Jags don't have the talent to come back from a big deficit. They have superior athletes to the Jaguars, including tight end Delanie Walker and receiver Kendall Wright.
Pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 12
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Buccaneers Passing Attack vs. Ravens Secondary
Mike Glennon and his big receivers might have a big day against Baltimore's banged-up secondary. Tampa may have rookie receiver Mike Evans back after he missed last week with a groin injury, and Baltimore's 27th ranked pass defense will be without corner Asa Jackson, who was put on IR with a toe injury. The Bucs don't have a very good passing attack, but they have tall and athletic receivers and a quarterback who almost led them to comeback wins in back-to-back weeks.
Start 'em: Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson
V-Jax had eight catches for 144 yards last week, and seems to be getting back into the groove with Mike Glennon at quarterback after Jackson had eight catches total the first two weeks of the season. He's also going against a weak Baltimore secondary.
Sit 'em: Ravens RB Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro
The Ravens backfield is clearly a running back-by-committee now, with Justin Forsett, Bernard Pierce, and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro all splitting carries. Forsett has the most fantasy value, since he gets the majority of the carries out of the three and catches passes (had seven catches last week). Right now, Forsett's running very well (leads the league in yards per carry), but the other two are stuck behind him. Forsett is a decent play, but otherwise stay away from the Ravens backfield.
Pick 'em up: Ravens TE Owen Daniels (21.6%)
With Dennis Pitta on IR, the former Texan is a good tight end option for those in need of one. He's seen at least six targets in each of the last two games (he caught five passes for 70 yards last week) and he's facing a defense that allows 292 passing yards per game.
Why The Ravens Will Win:
The Ravens will be looking to bounce back after a poor showing against Indy. They get to face a team who's only win is on a last-minute touchdown pass against Pittsburgh, whom the Ravens beat handily. Tampa ranks near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.
Why The Buccaneers Will Win:
The Bucs have looked much better since getting cremated by Atlanta on Thursday Night Football, beating Pittsburgh and taking New Orleans to overtime. They have some talented wide receivers going against a poor pass defense, and Doug Martin has been healthy for two straight weeks, which is always a good thing.
Pick: Buccaneers 26, Ravens 24
Denver Broncos (3-1) @New York Jets (1-4)-1:00, CBS
Matchup To Watch: Broncos QB Peyton Manning (And His Receivers) vs. Jets Pass Defense
We all know about Peyton and Denver's prolific offense. Manning is five touchdowns away from breaking Brett Favre's NFL record for career touchdown passes (508) and he's bound to do it in the next two games. He's also coming off a game in which he set a personal best for passing yards in a game with 479. The Jets pass defense hasn't been great, allowing the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL (12), but they are tied for the lead league in sacks (17).
Start 'em: Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders
Even with Wes Welker back in the fold, Sanders has still been Peyton Manning's favorite target, catching seven passes for 101 yards last week. He leads the team in catches and receiving yards and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in three of his four games (He had 77 in the other game). He's also going against a weak and injury-ridden secondary.
Sit 'em: Jets WR Eric Decker
The Jets passing game is a mess, and that's partly because Decker hasn't been healthy. He has a hamstring injury that he missed last week's game with and is questionable for this week. He is the primary target for Geno Smith, but with his injury problems and Smith's passing problems, he's not a smart start.
Pick 'em up: Broncos K Brandon McManus (3.8%)
Now that Matt Prater is in Detroit, the job is all McManus's. He hasn't been spectacular thus far, but he gets to kick in thin air for a volatile offense, so he's worth a pick-up if you need a kicker.
Why The Broncos Will Win:
Peyton Manning, for one. And Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas, and Sanders, and Welker. The Jets have one of the league's worst pass defenses and are struggling on offense as well. The Broncos are coming off a thumping of previously unbeaten Arizona. Denver is 5-0 in their last five meetings against the Jets.
Why The Jets Will Win:
The Broncos have bad memories of the last time they played in MetLife Stadium (the Super Bowl last year). They will be without starting running back Montee Ball and the Jets may have Eric Decker back. The Broncos are 0-1 on the road this season.
Pick: Broncos 35, Jets 21
Detroit Lions (3-2) @Minnesota Vikings (2-3)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch:
Start 'em: Lions WR Golden Tate
Detroit signed Tate in the offseason to have a legitimate number two threat to Calvin Johnson. While Johnson has dealt with triple-teams and nagging injuries, Tate has stepped up and filled the role. Minnesota doesn't have a great pass defense, and Tate has caught eight passes for 116 yards and seven passes for 134 yards and a touchdown the last two games respectively. He does not have a game of fewer than five catches and less than 50 yards so far this season.
Sit 'em: Vikings RB Matt Asiata
He'll get carries (15 last game and 20 the game before), but rookie backup Jerick McKinnon is gaining ground on him and the Lions defense is pretty good against the run (3rd in the NFL). McKinnon had 15 carries for 72 yards last week.
Pick 'em up: Lions K Matt Prater (6.8%)
Yes, this makes two kickers in a row. Kickers are people too! Now that Detroit has a good kicker to pair with their explosive offense, they can have more faith in the kicking game. Prater won't be what he was in Denver, but he's a good kicker who will get multiple opportunities.
Why The Lions Will Win:
The Lions are better than their record suggests. They just had a kicker holding them back. The have a dangerous offense even without Calvin Johnson and they have one of the league's best defenses this year. The Vikings have a rookie quarterback coming back from injury.
Why The Vikings Will Win:
Last time the Vikings played the Lions (December 29 of last year), the Vikings won 14-13, and the Lions didn't have Calvin Johnson for that game. They probably won't have him for this game either. Teddy Bridgewater is undefeated as a starter (he's only started one game, a 41-28 win over Atlanta), and they may get linebacker Chad Greenway back this week.
Pick: Lions 27, Vikings 13
New England Patriots (3-2)@Buffalo Bills (3-2)-1:00, FOX
Matchup To Watch: Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Bills QB Kyle Orton
This is not a joke. I'm dead serious. Kyle Orton played surprisingly well last week after replacing E.J. Manuel as starter. He went 30 for 43 with 308 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Pretty good for someone who missed all of offseason workouts while contemplating retirement. On the other side, rumors of Tom Brady's demise were greatly exaggerated. A week after getting pummeled by Kansas City, Brady put a hurting on Cincinnati last week, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns in a 43-17 win.
Start 'em: Bills RB Fred Jackson
Jackson has shown he's definitely the workhorse in the timeshare between him and C.J. Spiller, contributing in the running game and passing game. He has also run for over 100 yards the last three times he's played New England,.
Sit 'em: Patriots RB Stevan Ridley
Ridley had a huge game last week, running for 113 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. But he's been a bit inconsistent, and this week he faces the league's top-ranked rush defense (71 yards per game).
Pick 'em up: Bills QB Kyle Orton (0.4%)
Orton is the starter from here forward, and he showed he can still play, and play well, last week. New England has a good pass defense, but looking ahead, you could do worse than Orton as a backup quarterback.
Pick: Patriots 32, Bills 20
Carolina Panthers (3-2)@Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)-1:00, CBS
In the interest of time, I will just do the picks for the rest of the games
Pick: Panthers 28, Bengals 21
A.J Green is out, and the Bengals are coming off a whooping from New England. Cam Newton has really improved his passing as he stays in the pocket more.
Green Bay Packers (3-2) @Miami Dolphins (2-2)-1:00, FOX
Pick: Packers 32, Dolphins 27
The Dolphins will have running back Knowshon Moreno back, and Ryan Tannehill looked good two weeks ago, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense is clicking right now.
San Diego Chargers (4-1) @Oakland Raiders (0-4)-4:05, CBS
Pick: Chargers 35, Raiders 19
Phillip Rivers is looking as good as ever, and the Chargers have looked like a potential Super Bowl team since Week 1. Oakland is in turmoil after a coach firing and a bye week.
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) @Seattle Seahawks (3-1)-4:25, FOX
Pick: Seahawks 37, Cowboys 35
If this were in Jerry World, I'd probably go with Dallas pulling the upset, as they have looked very good so far, especially the offense. But this one's in Seattle, and with the 12th Man behind them, the Seahawks should win.
Washington Redskins (1-4) @Arizona Cardinals (3-1)-4:25, FOX
Pick: Cardinals 28, Redskins 19
With Carson Palmer now expected to play, the Cardinals have a much better chance to beat Washington, who has struggled.
Chicago Bears (2-3) @Atlanta Falcons (2-3)-4:25, FOX
Pick: Falcons 34, Bears 28
Both teams look to bounce back in Devin Hester's return to Chicago. Bold Prediction: Hester scores a return touchdown.
New York Giants (3-2) @Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)-8:30, NBC
Pick: Eagles 31, Giants 28
The Eagles are going all-black for the game against the rival Giants, who have played well recently. However, I think Philly will get back on track.
San Francisco 49ers (3-2) @St. Louis Rams (1-3)-8:30, ESPN
Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 23
Rams quarterback Austin Davis has led St. Louis back from large deficits, but was also the one who dug those holes and still has only won once. San Francisco is the far superior team, but Davis and the feisty Rams will make it close.
