Monday, November 5, 2018

Big Ten Basketball Preseason Power Rankings

College basketball is so close, even that T-Rex who you genetically manufactured and keep in your backyard can reach it (don't worry, we won't tell the government). You know what else is big (besides Teddy the T-Rex)? The ten teams, sorry, fourteen, that make up the Big Ten Conference.

Last season saw the Big Ten only get four nods (Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue) to the big dance. The conference is much stronger in the middle than they were last year, which will result in more teams in the tournament, but it also means the top won't be as dominant as it was last year. The conference brings back a lot of quality players, yet it is still young, so time will tell how great the league could be.

This is first of several Big Ten Power Rankings that will come out this year. The tentative plan is to have the next one come out before the December Big Ten play, one before Big Ten season, and multiple between then and the end of the season.


1. Michigan State

Spartans?

2017-18 Season: 30-5 (16-2) - Fist Place Conference - Second Round NCAA Tournament

Upward Movement: League Champs (+- 0)

Downward Movement: Fifth Place (-4)

Rationale: The Spartans currently occupy the top spot somewhat by default. Last season's squad finished atop the Big Ten standings before being bounced early in the Big Dance by Syracuse (more on Cuse in the minute). They lost two of their top players to the NBA lottery, but maintain forwards Nick Ward and Cassius Winston. Last year's team had the most talent in the league, but this year they are definitely closer in that department to the rest of the league.

2. Michigan

I have many questions, Mr. Wolverine.

2017-18 Season: 33-8 (13-5) - Tied-Fourth Place Conference - Champions Game NCAA Tournament

Upward Movement: League Champs (+1)

Downward Movement: Fifth Place (-3)

Rationale: The Wolverines made a surprise run all the way to the national championship game on the back of, even more surprisingly, their defense. Michigan loses three of their top four scorers yet returns Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Jordan Poole. The team also adds a highly rated recruiting class featuring Ignas Brazdeikis, a 6-8 wing who can make an immediate impact.

3. Nebraska

Standard Midwest cookout.
Corn and hot dogs.

2017-18 Season: 22-11 (13-5) - Tied-Fourth Place Conference - First Round NIT

Upward Movement: Second Place (+1)

Downward Movement: Seventh Place (-4)

Rationale: Remember when I said we would talk about Syracuse again? Well, this is the time. That spot in the tournament should've belonged to the Cornhuskers, since the Orange (dumb name by the way) had a worse record and a similar amount of no quality wins. Sorry, I'm just very anti-Syracuse making the 2018 tournament. This year's Nebraska team brings back almost all of the team that should've made the tournament. The reason I have their downward movement so low is that last time they were ranked this high preseason, things went south quick, and last year's team had such a good record thanks to a very generous conference slate.

4. Indiana

No joke here, just thought I'd remind 
you that Indiana is a beautiful state.

2017-18 Season: 16-15 (9-9) - Tied-Sixth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: League Champs (+3)

Downward Movement: Eighth Place (-4)

Rationale: The Hoosiers have a deep, yet young roster to work with. Juwan Morgan will most likely be featured on, at minimum, second team all-Big Ten at season's end and is part of the nation's best one-two punch with McDonald's All-American Romeo Langford. The biggest questions for the Hoosiers is who can step up to fill the point spot and who will be the third option behind Morgan and Langford.

5. Wisconsin

Whoa, take it easy man.

2017-18 Season: 15-18 (7-11) - Ninth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Second Place (+3)

Downward Movement: Eight Place (-3)

Rationale: Last year's Badger squad ended the school's long-running streak of NCAA tournament appearances. The team brings back the majority of the roster, including Ethan Happ, and as long as they are healthy the team could be competitive at the top of the league.

6. Purdue

Oh trains, so scary.

2017-18 Season: 30-7 (15-3) - Tied-Second Place Conference - Sweet Sixteen NCAA Tournament

Upward Movement: Second Place (+4)

Downward Movement: Ninth Place (-3)

Rationale: Purdue loses all of their starters except Big Ten player of the year Carson Edwards. If the team is competing for the championship, it's because someone other than Edwards can make a serious impact. The team may have a hard time if the only one who makes noise is Edwards.

7. Iowa

Iowa's defensive scheme last year.

2017-18 Season: 14-19 (4-14) - Tied-Twelfth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Fourth Place (+3)

Downward Movement: Tenth Place (-3)

Rationale:  The Hawkeyes bring back their top nine scorers and add top 60 recruit Joe Wieskamp. Tyler Cook is one of the more underappreciated players in the league and is my sleeper pick for the all-conference team. It's no question that Iowa can score as well as anyone in the nation, but the only way they can finish in the top half of the league, and make the tournament, is if they start to understand how to stop other people from scoring.

8. Ohio State

My preferred buckeyes.

2017-18 Season: 25-9 (15-3) - Tied-Second Place Conference - Second Round NCAA Tournament

Upward Movement: Fifth Place (+3)

Downward Movement: Twelfth Place (-4)

Rationale: Ohio State finished way above expectations last season in Chris Holtmann's first year on the job. The Buckeye lose their do-everything star Keita Bates-Diop, as well as other key pieces from last year's squad. I don't expect the team to be close to as good as they were last year, but they are still in contention to make the tournament.

9. Minnesota

This is apparently in Minnesota.

2017-18 Season: 15-17 (4-14) - Tied-Twelfth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Fourth Place (+5)

Downward Movement: Thirteenth Place (-4)

Rationale: There is no seat hotter than Richard Pitino's. He has only made the tournament once in his previous five years with the Golden Gophers. Couple that with his last name being maybe the worst you can currently have in basketball, and Pitino needs a very strong year if he wants to stay in the Twin Cities. Last year's team had a lot of injuries to put up with, but this year they do get all those guys back in the rotation.

10. Maryland

Oh turtles, so scary.

2017-18 Season: 19-13 (8-10) - Eighth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Fourth Place (+6)

Downward Movement: Twelfth Place (-2)

Rationale: Maryland is a very hard team to figure out. Last year's team struggled in conference play and they lost star guard Kevin Huerter to the draft. They retain point guard Anthony Cowan and center Bruno Fernando and add five-star freshman Jalen Smith. I'm not sure what will happen with the Terrapins, but if they click, they'll click, and if they don't, they'll struggle mightily.

11. Penn State

I cannot sleep after seeing this one, 
so I thought I'd share the misery!
His eyes are glaring into my soul.

2017-18 Season: 26-13 (9-9) - Tied-Sixth Place Conference - Champion NIT

Upward Movement: Seventh Place (+4)

Downward Movement: Twelfth Place (-1)

Rationale: Penn State lost star and go-to guy Tony Carr from the team that won the NIT. Carr is a huge loss for the team, and it will be really hard to replace him if that's even possible. I doubt the team can reach the heights of last season, but they could give teams headaches.

12. Northwestern

Sorry, this is North West, not Northwestern

2017-18 Season: 15-17 (6-12) - Eleventh Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Eighth Place (+4)

Downward Movement: Fourteenth Place (-2)

Rationale: Northwestern was the most disappointing team from last season. Add on to that the fact that Bryant McIntosh and Scottie Lindsey are gone, and the team is in for trouble. There's always a chance that they can be competitive with their newly renovated home, but it seems unlikely.

13. Illinois

No joke here, just thought I'd remind
you that Illinois is a trashy state. 

2017-18 Season: 14-18 (4-14) - Tied-Twelfth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Tenth Place (+3)

Downward Movement: Fourteenth Place (-1)

Rationale: Illinois is in the category of few teams that both have very little talent and very little experience. The Fighting Illini will be the team that most of the rest of the conference is happy to see on their schedules. I still believe Brad Underwood can build a good program at the school, but this year won't be indicative of things to come.

14. Rutgers

Live look at the great "Midwestern" 
state of New Jersey.

2017-18 Season: 15-19 (3-15) - Fourteenth Place Conference - No Postseason

Upward Movement: Tenth Place (+4)

Downward Movement: Fourteenth Place (-0)

Rationale: Since joining the league in 2014, the Scarlett Knights are yet to finish higher than 14th, and this year won't change things. Rutgers looked a lot better last season than in years past, but Corey Sanders and Deshawn Freeman have moved on. The team isn't going to shock many people in a good way, but they still have the dream that one day they can reach the heights that is the thirteen seed in the Big Ten tournament.



To stay up to date on the newest Head in the Game articles (and general sports commentary), follow @headingameblog on Twitter. You can also find me on Twitter @T_RoyStory (Troy).

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Fantasy Football/NFL Week 9 Preview

The past few days have featured quite a bit of action around the National Football League. First, there was the dysfunctional situation in Cleveland ("dysfunctional" and "Cleveland" go together like peanut butter and chocolate). After the Browns' Week 7 loss to Tampa Bay, head coach Hue Jackson alluded to possibly taking the offensive playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Todd Haley. He later backtracked from that statement, but it was clear tension existed between him and Haley. It seemed as if Haley had won the power struggle when Jackson was fired Monday morning, but the Haley was fired a few hours later. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was named interim head coach and running backs coach Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator. GM John Dorsey and company will likely conduct an extensive search for the next head coach, one that will include several NFL coordinators, as well as college coaches, such as Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley (has a connection to Baker Mayfield and is apparently well-liked in NFL circles) and Iowa State's Matt Campbell (is from Ohio and is said to be well-liked by Dorsey). it looks as if the Browns may have finally found their franchise coordinator. Now they need to find the right person to coach him.

While Monday was mostly dominated by the Browns and their coaching moves, Tuesday was littered with playoff contenders making player moves. The NFL Trade Deadline occurred at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, and there were a few high-profile moves. Demaryius Thomas was traded from Denver to Houston for a fourth-round pick (and a swap of seventh-round picks). Deshaun Watson has returned to form, but he lost Will Fuller to a torn ACL last week. So the Texans are hoping Thomas can make up for the loss of Fuller (though he's a much different receiver). The person this helps the most is Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton, The impressive rookie is now the clear number two in Denver behind Emmanuel Sanders. He should be picked up in all fantasy leagues if he's not already rostered.

Demaryius Thomas wasn't the only big-time receiver on the move Tuesday. Lions receiver Golden Tate, who has been sweating out trade rumors, was indeed traded by Detroit to Philadelphia in exchange for a third-round draft pick. Tate, who is in a contract year, should help out Carson Wentz and the Super Bowl champs. Fantasy-wise, Lion receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. should see an increase in targets.

The other high-profile offensive player to be traded Tuesday was Packers running back Ty Montgomery, who had fallen out of favor in Green Bay after defying orders and taking a kickoff return out of the endzone late in Sunday's game against the Rams, only to fumble it and coast Aaron Rodgers and company a chance at a game-winning drive. He was sent to the Ravens for a seventh-round pick.

The other two big trades on Tuesday were on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams bolstered their already-insane defense by trading for edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr., whom the Jaguars gave them in exchange for a third-rounder and a fifth-rounder. The former third overall pick has been a disappointment in Jacksonville, but he's still young and talented.

The final trade of the day occurred between the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins. The Packers traded talented young safety HA-HA... sorry, I just remembered a joke I had heard earlier. Where was I... ah, yes, the Packers traded former first-round pick HA-HA... I'm sorry, I'm sorry, it was a really funny joke... anyway, the Packers traded star safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to Washington for a fourth-round pick. This is a good get for the Redskins, who will pair Clinton-Dix with D.J. Swearinger to create a formidable pair in the defensive backfield.

After a week filled with major moves, some potentially major implications could be seen in fantasy. We'll find out.

Image result for Courtland sutton
New Broncos #2 receiver Courtland Sutton


Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings

Quarterback

1. Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs (@ CLE) - You're starting Patty regardless of the matchup, and this week's matchup is against a reeling Browns team.

2. Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. TB) - Cam was probably Superman for Halloween, and he will probably play like Superman on Sunday against the league's second-worst pass defense.

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (@ NE) - In a battle of all-time great quarterbacks, A-Rodg is the better one (and has the better matchup).

4. Jared Goff, Rams (@ NO) - I think this has the makings of a high-scoring affair, which is good for Goff, who faces New Orleans' suspect pass defense.

5. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs. GB) - This also has the makings of a barn-burner, which means Touchdown Tommy should find the endzone, which he didn't do last week.

6. Drew Brees, Saints (vs. LAR) - The Rams defense isn't the greatest matchup, but like I said, I think this will be a game with a lot of points.

7. Kirk Cousins, Vikings (vs. DET) - The Lions gave up 48 points to the ferocious lowly Jets last week, so Captain Kirk should have a pretty good day.

8. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. LAC) - DangeRuss has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last three games, and that trend could continue against the average Chargers defense.

9. Matt Ryan, Falcons (@ WAS) - Matty Ice doesn't draw the easiest matchup in the world, but the high-volume passer should be able to put up good numbers.

10. Deshaun Watson, Texans (@ DEN) - He probably won't throw five touchdown passes again (especially against Denver), but in case he does, don't leave him on the bench like I did last week.

11. Matthew Stafford, Lions (@ MIN) - Here's a stat for y'all: Matty Staff has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of his last six games (and exactly two in each of his last five games).

12. Phillip Rivers, Chargers (@ SEA) - Here's another stat: Phil has at least two touchdowns in each of his eight games, going back to last season. However, Seattle's pass defense is tough.

13. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears (@ BUF) - Mitch(ell) has found the endzone a lot recently, but Buffalo, despite being a bad team, sports a good pass defense (statistically).

14. Baker Mayfield, Browns (vs. KC) - How will Baker adjust to the coaching change? I have no idea. But I do know that Kansas City's pass defense is not great.

15. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - FITZ-MAGIC IS BACK!! As always, one must take a cautious with Fitz. I'm being extra cautious this week.

16. Alex Smith, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Game Manager Alex Smith could manage this game pretty well against Atlanta's porous pass defense.

17. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (@ BAL) - With Ravens-Steelers, there's always a high possibility of an ugly, low-scoring game.

18. Joe Flacco, Ravens (vs. PIT) - See Roetlisberger, Ben.

19. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - As far as the top-20 rankings go, Dak is in the back (I'm sorry, but I enjoy rhyming).

20. Brock Osweiler, Dolphins (vs. NYJ) - Brocktober isn't over yet. Brock 'n Roll isn't dead. He's still alive in the Brocktagon.



Running Back

1. Todd Gurley II, Rams (@ NO) - If the legendary Patrick Mahomes didn't exist, Gurley would probably be the clear front-runner for NFL MVP.

2. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs (@ CLE) - As a Browns fans, I'm used to seeing good running backs tear up the Cleveland defense, and Kareem the Dream is a good great running back.

3. Alvin Kamara, Saints (vs. LAR) - Alvin, who I'm hoping has dressed up as a chipmunk for Halloween at some point, scored by air and by ground last week.

4. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - It's almost the time of year for Salvation Army buckets, which means it's almost Zeke's favorite time of year.

5. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (vs. TB) - The guy whose last name sounds like a drink option on the McDonald's Dollar Menu has a good matchup against the defensively-challenged Bucs.

6. James White, Patriots (vs. GB) - James Whitey Bulger has been killing it in fantasy this season thanks to his productivity running and receiving, and he'll be heavily used again Sunday night.

7. Melvin Gordon III, Chargers (@ SEA) - Gordon sat out L.A.'s before the bye week, and the only reason I have him this low is because he's still a bit banged up.

8. James Connor, Steelers (@ BAL) - The Ravens have a pretty good defense, but J.C. has run for over 100 yards in each of his last three games, and has two touchdowns in each of those games.

9. Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (vs. HOU) - The undrafted rookie has run for at least 90 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks, and Royce Freeman is hurt right now.

10. Adrian Peterson, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Speaking of hurt, it seems like AP has played hurt most of the season, but he's still played well, and Chris Thompson might not play this week.

11. Lamar Miller, Texans (@ DEN) - The re-emergence of Miller seems to have coincided with the re-emergence of Deshaun Watson. He's run for over 100 yards each of the last two weeks.

12. Jordan Howard, Bears (@ BUF) - Howard has had to share touches with Taerik Cohen, but he does have a touchdown each of the last two weeks and should feast against Buffalo.

13. Nick Chubb, Browns (vs. KC) - The rookie is the clear early-down back in Cleveland, and he gets a matchup with a Chief defense that has had trouble containing running backs.

14. Tarik Cohen, Bears (@ BUF) - The explosive back only gets so many touches, but he usually takes full advantage of those touches, and he should be able to do that again in Buffalo.

15. Chris Carson, Seahawks (vs. LAC) - C.C. (not Sabathia) has thrived lately, rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last four games.

16. Mark Ingram II, Saints (vs. LAR) - Mark obviously is limited by the presence of Alvin Kamara, but he has still gotten double-digit carries each of the last three weeks.

17. Kerryon Johnson, Lions (@ MIN) - Kerryon My Wayward Johnson only had eight carries for 22 yards last week, but he also had six catches for 69 yards.

18. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins (NYJ) - I'm not all that enthused by Drake, but he has found the endzone each of the last two weeks.

19. Sony Michel, Patriots (vs. GB) - After missing last week's game, it looks like the impressive rookie will play this week, but it remains to be seen how involved he is Sunday night.

20. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (@ WAS) - Ito Smith has cut into his workload, but Coleman is still the number one running back in Atlanta.

21. Aaron Jones, Packers (@ NE) - Ty Montgomery is gone, which means it might finally be the Aaron Jones show in Green Bay. I'm not sure if the Packers will run a lot in New England, though.

22. Chris Thompson, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Like his backfield mate, Thompson is banged up. He might not play Sunday. If he does, he draws a very good matchup.

23. Dion Lewis, Titans (@ DAL) - Dion had been largely quiet until two weeks ago, when 155 total yards in London. We'll see if he can follow that up with another big game.

24. Jalen Richard, Raiders (@ SF) - Richard has been heavily targeted in the passing game (21 total catches the past three weeks), and I think this could be a high-scoring game.

25. LeSean McCoy, Bills (vs. CHI) - Although Shady looked better last week (he had 95 total yards), the Bears defense presents a tough matchup.

26. Alex Collins, Ravens (vs. PIT) - The last time these two teams met, Collins did have a touchdown. He didn't do much else, though.

27. Latavius Murray, Vikings (vs. DET) - Dalvin Cook returned to practice this week, but it remains to be seen how much Dalvin plays this week. If Cook doesn't play, Murray is a top-20 back.

28. Isaiah Crowell, Jets (@ MIA) - The Crow hasn't done much this season aside from a 219 (!!) yard rushing game against Denver, but he does have upside (as evidenced by his 219-yard game).

29. Duke Johnson Jr., Browns (vs. KC) - Who know how the Cleveland offense will look after the coaching changes, but I bet Duke gets a lot more touches.

30. Peyton Barber, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - Peyton (no relation to Tiki and Ronde) (I just said that without actually checking) rushed 19 times for 85 yards and a touchdown last week.



Wide Receiver

1. Adam Thielen, Vikings (vs. DET) - Adam Thielen is a magician. That is all.

2. Michael Thomas, Saints (vs. LAR) - He's listed as questionable, but I expect him to play in what could be a shootout.

3. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (@ DEN) - This guy will catch anything, and now his quarterback has returned to form. Watch out.

4. Antonio Brown, Steelers (@ BAL) - AB has scored in all but one game this season. This guy is pretty good at football.

5. Julio Jones, Falcons (@ WAS) - You would think a receiver as talented as Jones would find the endzone at some point. Unless he's forgotten what it looks like...

6. Devante Adams, Packers (@ NE) - Aaron Rodgers' favorite target will be busy Sunday night against the weak New England pass defense.

7. Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - Mike had 179 receiving yards last week. When Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting early in the season, Mike had 147-yard game and a 137-yard game.

8. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (@ CLE) - Kansas City will find creative ways to get Tyreek the ball (as they always do) on Sunday in Cleveland.

9. Robert Woods, Rams (@ NO) - Stock up on as many offensive players as possible for this game. I think it'll be a fantasy bonanza.

10. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (vs. DET) - The man with sticky hands had 10 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown last week.

11. Brandin Cooks, Rams (@ NO) - See Woods, Robert.

12. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (vs. HOU) - There is one less receiver in Denver, which can only help the Broncos' leading pass-catcher.

14. Julian Edelman, Patriots (vs. GB) - It should be a pass-fest in New England, which is good news for Tom Brady's favorite receiver.

15. Keenan Allen, Chargers (@ SEA) - Seattle is tough against the pass, but Allen will still produce with his high volume of targets.

16. Jarvis Landry, Browns (vs. KC) - As I've said before, who knows how the Cleveland offense will handle this coaching change, but Jarvis is one of the most heavily-targeted players in the league.

17. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (@ BAL) - JuJu dressed in full uniform for Halloween, because of course he did.

18. Cooper Kupp, Rams (@ NO) - See Cooks, Brandin.

19. Kenny Golladay, Lions (@ MIN) - With Golden Tate gone, someone has to take all of his targets. Golladay is the best bet.

20. Marvin Jones Jr., Lions (@ MIN) - Marvin Jones Jr. is the second-best bet.

21. John Brown, Ravens (vs. PIT) - Smoke was quiet last week, but he still had the same number of targets as the week before, when he had 134 yards and a touchdown.

22. Devin Funchess, Panthers (vs. TB) - Funchess was also quiet last week, but he has a really good matchup against Tampa Bay.

23. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs (@ CLE) - A true boom-or-bust proposition, Sammy had 107 yards and two touchdowns last week after seven relatively quiet weeks.

24. Josh Gordon, Patriots (vs. GB) - Flash Gordon was reportedly going to sit out the start of last week's game because he was late to practice. He didn't sit out, and he was targeted six times.

25. Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs. HOU) - As I mentioned earlier, Sutton might be the biggest beneficiary from the Trade Deadline.

26. Demaryius Thomas, Texans (@ DEN) - It might take some time for DT to build a rapport with Deshaun Watson, but he is very familiar with his opponent on Sunday.

27. DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers (@ CAR) Of the four games Ryan Fitzpatrick has started this season, D-Jax has gone for over 100 yards in three of them.

28. DJ Moore, Panthers (vs. TB) - The rookie had his best game yet last week, catching five passes for 90 yards (and rushing for 36 yards). He could have his best game yet again this week.

29. Amari Cooper, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - I almost forgot about Amari Cooper, who is playing his first game for Dallas this weekend. We'll see how he fits in the offense.

30. Michael Crabtree, Ravens (vs. PIT) - Crabtree didn't do much last time the Ravens played Pittsburgh, but he was targeted eight times.


Tight End

1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (@ CLE) - Travis Kelce has usurped Gronk as the clear-cut number one tight end in fantasy.

2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (vs. GB) - Speaking of Rob, he should have a productive game Sunday night against Green Bay.

3. Greg Olsen, Panthers (vs. TB) - It looks like GO is back back (he has a touchdown each of the last two weeks), and he has a good matchup against Tampa Bay.

4. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - O'Terrius Jabari has over 60 yards receiving in each of his last three games.

5. David Njoku, Browns (vs. KC) - After two straight weeks with a touchdown, Njoku did not even see a single target last week. It's hard to trust tight ends in fantasy.

6. Trey Burton, Bears (@ BUF) - A week after caching nine of 11 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown, Burton caught three of four targets for 18 yards. It's hard to trust tight ends in fantasy.

7. Jimmy Graham, Packers (@ NE) - A week after catching five of nine targets for 104 yards, Graham caught one of four targets for 21 yards. It's hard to trust tight ends in fantasy.

8. Jordan Reed, Redskins (vs. ATL) - Reed was targeted 12 times last week, which was a season-high. He is trending in the right direction.

9. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. DET) - It's hard to get a whole lot of targets when you have Adam Theilen and Stefon Diggs on your team, but the red-nosed reindeer did get seven targets last week.

10. Austin Hooper, Falcons (@ WAS) - After two straight games with double-digit targets, Hooper was targeted four times last week. It's hard to trust... you get the gist.

11. Vance McDonald, Steelers (@ BAL) - The first time these two teams met, Vance from Vance Refrigeration had five catches for 62 yards. Decent.

12. Benjamin Watson, Saints (vs. LAR) - Sherlock Holmes' best friend was not targeted last week against Minnesota, a week after catching six passes for 43 yards and a touchdown. You can't trust...

13. Chris Herndon IV, Jets (@ MIA) - I still don't know where this guy came from (update: he's a rookie 4th-rounder from Miami), but he has a touchdown in each of the last three games.

14. Charles Clay, Bills (vs. CHI) - At this point...

15. Hayden Hurst, Ravens (vs. PIT) - ...I'm just grasping at straws.

16. Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (@ CAR) - You could honestly put these guys down here in any order...

17. Antonio Gates, Chargers (@ SEA) - ...because at this point, you're pretty much hoping for a touchdown.

18. Geoff Swaim, Cowboys (vs. TEN) - Good luck.

19. Jeff Heuerman, Broncos (vs. HOU) - Honestly...

20. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (vs. NYJ) - ...it's a crapshoot this deep at the tight end position.

Defense/Special Teams

1. Chicago Bears (@ BUF) - I don't know if you've heard, but NATHAN PETERMAN is starting for the Bills this Sunday.

2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. TEN) - The Titans have been struggling offensively all season.

3. Houston Texans (@ DEN) - The Texans have a good defense, and Case Keenum will be without one of his top receivers.

4. Carolina Panthers (vs. TB) - I think the Fitz-magic ran out a while ago.

5. Baltimore Ravens (vs. PIT) - This is usually a low-scoring affair, and Baltimore's defense is stingy.

6. Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET) - Minnesota's talented defense won't have to worry about Golden Tate on Sunday.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (@ CLE) - Who know what Cleveland's offense will look like, and how they'll perform.

8. Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ) - Can't trust those Jets.

9. Denver Broncos (vs. HOU) - Either they will hold the Texans, or Deshaun Watson will throw five touchdown passes.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (@ BAL) - Old school AFC North football.


Kicker

1. Greg Zuerlein, Rams (@ NO)

2. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (vs. GB)

3. Will Lutz, Saints (vs. LAR)

4. Justin Tucker, Ravens (vs. PIT)

5. Harrison Butker, Chiefs (@ CLE)

6. Graham Gano, Panthers (vs. TB)

7. Matt Prater, Lions (@ MIN)

8. Mason Crosby, Packers (@ NE)

9. Dan Bailey, Vikings (vs. DET)

10. Ka'imi Fairbairn, Texans (@ DEN)


Week 9 Picks

Record
Last Week: 12-2   vs. Spread: 9-5   Over/Under: 7-6-1
Season: 79-43   vs. Spread: 61-57-3   Over/Under: 52-66-2

Thursday

Raiders 28, 49ers 21 (8:20 PM, FOX/NFL Network)

Spread: OAK -1.5   Over/Under: 44

Neither of these teams is very good, but the Niners are starting Nick Mullens at QB.


Sunday

Bears 31, Bills 7 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: CHI -10   Over/Under: 37.5

The Bills are starting The Peter Man, so the Bears defense will have at least one pick-six.


Chiefs 32, Browns 21 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: KC -8.5   Over/Under: 51

The Chiefs are not an easy matchup right after you fire your head coach and OC.


Jets 21, Dolphins 23 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: MIA -3   Over/Under: 43.5

October may be over, but that doesn't necessarily mean Brocktober is over.


Lions 24, Vikings 31 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: MIN -5   Over/Under: 49

The Lions traded their leading receiver, while the Vikings have the NFL's leading receiver.


Falcons 34, Redskins 21 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: WAS -1.5   Over/Under: 48

Washington is on a roll right now, but I think the Falcons stop that roll.


Buccaneers 21, Panthers 35 (1:00 PM, FOX)

Spread: CAR -6   Over/Under: 55

Ryan Fitzpatrick may be a better option than Jameis Winston, but he's not a great option.


Steelers 17, Ravens 24 (1:00 PM, CBS)

Spread: BAL -2.5   Over/Under: 47

I think this might be a defensive game, and Baltimore has the better defense.


Texans 27, Broncos 23 (4:05 PM, CBS)

Spread: DEN -1   Over/Under: 46

I think this will be a back-and-forth game, but Houston is definitely the superior team.


Chargers 20, Seahawks 27 (4:05 PM, CBS)

Spread: SEA -1   Over/Under: 47.5

Although the Legion of Boom is dead, the Seattle defense is very much alive.


Rams 28, Saints 31 (4:25 PM, FOX)

Spread: LAR -1.5   Over/Under: 58.5

This might be the best game of the weekend, and I think it'll end in loss #1 for the Rams.


Packers 34, Patriots 31 (8:20 PM, NBC)

Spread: NE -5.5   Over/Under: 56.5

Aaron Rodgers didn't get a game-winning drive last week, but he will this week.


Monday

Titans 14, Cowboys 24 (8:15 PM, ESPN)

Spread: DAL -5.5   Over/Under: 40.5

I'd much rather watch Rams-Saints in primetime than Titans-Cowboys, but alas...


Stats and Info via ESPN.com, CBSSports.com and OddsShark.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Friday afternoon (except the Thursday night game)









College Football Week 10 Preview



We have reached the final stretch of the season, as the initial College Football Playoff rankings came out this Tuesday. There wasn't a lot of mystery as to who the top four would be (Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Notre Dame). Minor qualms could be had further down the rankings, but overall, the first CFP Rankings of the 2018 season came with little controversy. Don't expect that to continue. As unbeatens go down and we near conference championships, there will be heavy scrutiny (as there always is) regarding these rankings.


Image result for alabama lsu
Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa meet Saturday night in a heavyweight battle


Record
Last Week: 11-6   vs. Spread: 9-8   Over/Under: 6-11
Season: 117-39   vs. Spread: 72-69   Over/Under: 55-74-2

Thursday

Temple @ #12 UCF (7:30 PM, ESPN)

Undefeated Central Florida comes in at #12 in the initial CFP rankings, and even if the Knights finish 12-0 for the second straight season, they will probably need some chaos in front of them to have a shot at the Playoff. They're well on their way to another flawless season. Even with a banged-up quarterback, I expect UCF to extend it's FBS-leading winning streak to 21 games.

Spread: UCF -11.5   Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: UCF 40, Temple 31


Friday

Pittsburgh @ #25 Virginia (7:30 PM, ESPN2)

6-2 Virginia sees a number by its name for the first time this season, as the Cavs rounded out the initial CFP rankings. However, they must be wary of 4-4 Pittsburgh, a team that has beaten them each of the past three years. I think this year will be different, and I think the streaking Cavaliers will win their fourth conference game in a row.

Spread: UVA -7.5   Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction: Virginia 35, Pittsburgh 24


Saturday

Louisville @ #2 Clemson (Noon, ABC)

Without electrifying Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, Louisville has struggled this season. The talented Cardinal defense (they have the nation's number one scoring defense) has been solid, but new starting quarterback Jawon Pass (seven touchdowns, eight interceptions) and the offense have been shaky, leading to a 2-6 record. Louisville, which has lost its last five games, will be hard-pressed to end that skid this week.

Spread: CLEM -39   Over/Under: 61

Prediction: Clemson 52, Louisville 7


Nebraska @ #10 Ohio State (Noon, FOX)

Ohio State is hoping that it got things together during its bye week after getting railroaded by Purdue two weeks ago. The Buckeyes usually have strong bounce-back performances following losses, and I expect them to continue that trend this Saturday. Scott Frost's Cornhuskers have won two straight after losing their first six games, but those two wins were against Minnesota and Bethune-Cookman. Ohio State is a little better than Bethune-Cookman.

Spread: OSU -18   Over/Under: 72.5

Prediction: Ohio State 48, Nebraska 20


#19 Syracuse @ Wake Forest (Noon, ACC Network)

6-2 Syracuse continued its strong season last week with a 51-41 win over NC State. The Orange, as I mentioned last week, pushed second-ranked Clemson to the brink earlier this season, so this team is legit. 4-4 Wake Forest could provide a tough matchup for 'Cuse, but I fully expect the resurgent Orange to leave with a victory.

Spread: SYR -6.5   Over/Under: 75.5

Prediction: Syracuse 35, Wake Forest 32


#20 Texas A&M @ Auburn (Noon, ESPN)

After starting the season ranked in the top ten, the Auburn Tigers have fallen out of the rankings completely. Before beating Ole Miss last week, Auburn had lost two in a row (to Mississippi State and Tennessee). The A&M Aggies have gone the opposite direction, starting the season unranked before entering the rankings thanks to a win over Kentucky. However, the Aggies lost to Mississippi State last week, and I think they'll lose at Auburn this week.

Spread: AUB -3.5   Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction: Auburn 22, Texas A&M 20


#24 Iowa State @ Kansas (Noon, FOX Sports)

Matt Campbell could be the next head coach of the Cleveland Browns, but right now, he's guiding the 4-3 Cyclones, who travel to Kansas after making an appearance in the initial CFP rankings. The 3-5 Jayhawks are much better than they have been, and they beat TCU (which people thought was a very good team at one point) last week. But Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech (respectively) the last three weeks, so it'll be tough for Kansas to stop the Cyclones.

Spread: ISU -14.5   Over/Under: 46.5

Prediction: Iowa State 35, Kansas 13 


#6 Georgia @ #9 Kentucky (3:30 PM, CBS)

Believe it or not, this is not the biggest ranked matchup in the FBS this weekend (or even in the SEC). But it could end up being the most interesting. After suffering its lone loss to Texas A&M four weeks ago (in overtime), Kentucky has beaten Vandy by a touchdown and Missouri by a point. After suffering its lone loss to LSU three weeks ago (by a lot), Georgia walloped Florida last week. I'm going with the Bulldogs in this dog (and cat) fight.

Spread: UGA -9   Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction: Georgia 32, Kentucky 24


#13 West Virginia @ #17 Texas (3:30 PM, FOX)

This key Big 12 showdown comes between two talented signal-callers. Texas sophomore Sam Ehlinger has played well, throwing for 1817 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions (and rushing for eight touchdowns). West Virginia senior Will Grier has played at an elite level, throwing for 2272 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. This should be a high-scoring affair, one I think Grier and the Mountaineers will win over the slumping Longhorns.

Spread: TEX -2   Over/Under: 58

Prediction: West Virginia 38, Texas 31


#16 Iowa @ Purdue (3:30 PM, ESPN2)

Over in the Midwest, both Iowa and Purdue will look to bounce back from losses and stay alive in the Big Ten West race when the two teams meet in West Lafayette. A week after a rousing upset over Ohio State, Purdue went to East Lansing and lost to Michigan State. Back at home, the Boilermakers will look to take out the Hawkeyes, who lost at Penn State last week. I could see this game going either way, but I'm going to go with 6-2 Iowa over 4-4 Purdue.

Spread: PUR -2.5   Over/Under: 50.5

Prediction: Iowa 30, Purdue 28


Florida State @ #21 NC State (3:30 PM, ABC)

Even after a loss to Syracuse (their second loss in a row), the Wolfpack appeared in the initial CFP rankings. Florida State is coming off a 49-point loss to Clemson, but the Seminoles have shown they shouldn't be taken lightly (they lost to Miami by a single point). I'm going to go with an FSU upset over an NC State team trending in the wrong direction.

Spread: NCST -9  Over/Under: 53.5

Prediction: Florida State 32, NC State 27


#14 Penn State @ #5 Michigan (3:45 PM, ESPN)

Penn State and Michigan meet Saturday afternoon in a game that could have a profound impact on the Big Ten West division race. The Nittany Lions will hope to hold on to their slim hopes, while the Wolverines will look to stay unbeaten in the Big Ten. Penn State has been shaky since losing to Ohio State. Michigan has been dominant since a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame. I'm going with U of M in the Big House.

Spread: MICH -10.5   Over/Under: 53

Prediction: Michigan 28, Penn State 21


#22 Boston College @ Virginia Tech (3:45 PM, ACCN)

Virginia Tech looked like a potential candidate for a New Year's 6 bowl at the beginning of the season, but a shocking loss to Old Dominion has sent the Hokies into a bit of a tail spin, as they've lost three of their last five. The 6-2 Eagles have looked good, aside from a blowout loss to Purdue earlier in the season. Boston College should be able to beat slumping Virginia Tech.

Spread: BC -2   Over/Under: 57.5

Prediction: Boston College 32, Virginia Tech 24


Missouri @ #11 Florida (4:00 PM, SEC Network)

Both Missouri and Florida are looking to rebound from tough losses, but they were tough for different reasons. The Gators, who were looking like a potential Playoff team, got smacked by Georgia. The Tigers, who had lost three of their last four, were on their way to upsetting Kentucky, but they gave up a game-winning touchdown on the final play. The last six meetings between these two teams have resulted in blowouts, so I think Florida will rout Missouri.

Spread: FLA -6   Over/Under: 57.5

Prediction: Florida 38, Missouri 21


#15 Utah @ Arizona State (4:00 PM, PAC-12 Network)

Utah controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South, but the Utes have to be careful not to trip up. They face a tough test in the 4-4 Sun Devils, whose four losses came by just seven points. If history is any indication, Herm Edwards' squad will not make it easy for Utah, but I think the Utes will escape Tempe with a victory.

Spread: UTAH -7   Over/Under: 56

Prediction: Utah 38, Arizona State 30


#4 Notre Dame @ Northwestern (7:15 PM, ESPN)

The unbeaten Fighting Irish are well on their way to a Playoff appearance, but they still have a few potentially tough tests left. One of them is Northwestern, a team that beat Wisconsin by two touchdowns last week. The 5-3 Wildcats are on a four-game winning streak after losing three of their last four. However, Notre Dame is rolling right now (aside from an ugly five-point win against Pitt two weeks ago), so it's hard to pick against the Irish.

Spread: ND -10   Over/Under: 53.5

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Northwestern 21


Louisiana Tech @ #18 Mississippi State (7:30 PM, SECN)

This game may seem out of place amidst all of these inter-conference battles, but that's because the SEC is weird like that. In this battle of Bulldogs, 5-3 Mississippi State, fresh off a big win over Texas A&M, can't overlook 6-2 Louisiana Tech, a team that tested LSU earlier this season (before the Tigers pulled away to win by 17). I'm tempted to pick LA Tech in an upset. And I'm going to.

Spread: MSST -23.5   Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 31, Mississippi State 30


#1 Alabama @ #3 LSU (8:00 PM, CBS)

This is arguably the biggest game of the season thus far. After just one week, there will be major movement at or near the top of the CFP Rankings. If you remember (which you probably don't, since I hardly do), I predicted way back in my Week 4 Preview that Alabama's first loss would come in Baton Rouge. Since then, LSU has lost to Florida but beaten Georgia and Mississippi State, and Alabama has continued laying waste to its opponents (side note: Tua is about as far ahead in the Heisman race as Lamar Jackson was two years ago). But since I am a man of my word, I will stick by that bold prediction. We'll see if it comes to fruition.

Spread: ALA -14.5   Over/Under: 54

Prediction: LSU 31, Alabama 28


#7 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (8:00 PM, ABC)

This probably won't be quite like the Baker Mayfield-Patrick Mahomes game two years ago, but it will still feature a whole lot of offense. The host Red Raiders, who are coming off a loss to Iowa State, rank seventh in the nation in total offense (528 yards per game). Future Major League Baseball player Kyler Murray and the 7-1 Sooners rank fourth in the nation in total offense (548 yards per game). The difference might be defense, which Oklahoma is much better at.

Spread: OKLA -13.5   Over/Under: 77

Prediction: Oklahoma 48, Texas Tech 35


#23 Fresno State @ UNLV (10:30 PM, CBS Sports Network)

Let's all give the Fresno State Bulldogs a warm welcome to the rankings. The 7-1 Bulldogs are ranked for the first time in five years thanks to a six-game winning streak. I fully expect that win streak to stretch to seven against the 2-6 UNLV Rebels, who have lost five games in a row.

Spread: FRES -26   Over/Under: 60.5

Prediction: Fresno State 45, UNLV 14


California @ #8 Washington State (10:45 PM, ESPN)

The college football slate isn't complete without some #Pac12AfterDark. This week's installment features the surging Washington State Cougars against a Cal team that beat Washington last week. As the 5-3 Bears showed last week, they are capable of pulling off the upset, but the Cougs are too hot to cool down right now.

Spread: WSU -9.5   Over/Under: 50

Prediction: Washington State 32, California 24


Stats and Info via ESPN.com, SBNation.com and OddsShark.com
Lines via OddsShark.com
Lines as of Thusday Evening